Building Consensus?
Who can deny the situation has reached breaking point? There is actually a general consensus among the protagonists that societal breakdown has reached past anarchy into broad, deadly chaos, gross insecurity leading to violations of every human code of behaviour resulting in deaths on a mass scale. That's the situation right now in Iraq. The consensus might not be complete that the United States and its allies, in 'liberating' that country from the dictatorial rule of Saddam Hussein unleashed this deadly back-lash, but it's dead certain that the Arab countries neighbouring Iraq, would like a solution to the problem.Iran, of course, is part of the greater problem facing the settlement of the unbelievable escalation of sectarian hatred and violence. Once, in its early incarnation of fabled Persia, it vied with Iraq as the seat of Islamic rule. That ambition has not escaped the minds of its current religious and political elite. And that worries its neighbours - most of whom are majority Sunni - no end. All the more so since the theocratic dictatorship has acquired the means by which it may eventually achieve nuclear dominance among the Muslim countries in the region. And no good could come of that, for any of the nations there.
But there's no appeasing hard-line and determined Iran. Nor is there sweet persuasion sufficient to be employed in cajoling that country into ceasing to arm and encourage and assist by all practical and technical means the Shi'a component in Iraq in their triumphant backlash against the once-ascendant minority Sunni population in that country. The United States, as the major interloper in the area, was mildly hopeful of gentle persuasion entering the order of things, but the meeting in Sharm el-Sheik has failed that hope, as Iran's representative to the conference, Manouchehr Mottaki found it more useful to storm out of the proceedings, fuming on his way that the U.S. must accept responsibility for the terrorism and violence in Iraq.
Yes, most certainly, although the United States and her allies don't quite put it that way. Their alarm at the ongoing crisis and their inability to make real headway in stifling it has led to the growing realization that this chaos is not happening in a vacuum, that the insurrection has had ample assistance from a number of sources, Iran and its client Syria, being the most obvious identified. Syria, not quite happy with its indelicate political estrangement from the other Arab states, would much prefer to engage nicely with the U.S. once more. Iran clearly has no intention of so doing, seeming to really believe its own rhetoric of the United States being the personification of the Evil One.
And evil itself continues on its merry way, as U.S. forces have discovered that a newly-constructed school for girls in Baghdad has been booby-trapped with artillery shells having been placed into the walls and ceilings in the Huda Girls School in Tarmiya, a predominately Shi'a neighbourhood. Al-Qaeda representatives in Iraq are said to have been responsible for the attempted carnage. As Shi'a militants continue to stalk their Sunni prey and Sunni Islamists go on with their destabilization intent of the country, ordinary Iraqi civilians cower in dire fear of their ability to withstand further onslaughts - and mourn their dead.
Western countries, in their determination to assist the wobbly Shi'a-led Iraqi government, have been willing to release the government from debt. Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the supreme Sunni leadership in the Middle East has deferred that option, at least for the time being. And where does this all lead, if not to continued mayhem and murder? Suspicion and anger, irresolution and bitterness against the transparent search for ultimate power in the region continue to pit one state against the other. Is it even remotely possible to build consensus among the Arab states to result in anything resembling peace and security?
Iran doesn't seem dreadfully concerned about the carnage it helps unleash. Its anger is directed at the presence of foreign troops in its near proximity, in the insistence of the United Nations and Western powers that it comport itself responsibly on the world stage. Iran continues to nurse its delusional vision of ascending once more as the highest power, assuming its long-gone Caliphate. Whether before or after the return of the mysterious 12th Messenger is likely still in dispute.
Labels: Middle East, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, May 06, 2007
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