Iran Defanged?
What a turn-about. What a conundrum. The combined intelligence services of the United States have presented with a conclusion that runs counter to what the current U.S. administration has been concerning itself and the United Nations with in the imposition of sanctions for the last number of years. The conclusion, that while Iran remains a potential threat for Middle East security for the present and the near future, it is not through the successful management of a nuclear weapons breakthrough that we need be concerned.Or at least, not for the next two years. Which, even given the original perception that Iran was diligently working on the science of weapons development with nuclear technology, still leaves the world with a short time frame to face a potentially seriously-destabilizing disaster of immense proportions. The country's sabre-rattling is not for nothing; Iran's ambitions to rise within the hierarchy of the Middle East as the foremost power, both religious and political remains a reality.
And who are we to believe, a collection of secret intelligence agencies within a country which relies primarily on the collection of evidence through the use of remote surveillance with the aid of satellites and other electronic gadgetry, or a time-proven intelligence-gathering agency like the Mossad, devoted to the use of covert agents implanted within the confines of the very countries whose secrets it seeks - often extremely successfully - to unveil and often reveal to its sister-agencies internationally?
While the U.S. intelligence community now claims that Iran's active nuclear weapon programme was suspended in 2003, information coming out of Israel, for example, states otherwise: former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak begs to differ. "Iran did stop its nuclear program for a time in 2003, but in our assessment it resumed its work at a certain point." Israel's current chief of its armed forces explained further that collaboration on information with European intelligence officials upholds that view. And the point of view coming out of Paris isn't far off that assessment.
Time, he asserts will reveal which is the correct appraisal. "Iran's nuclear plans continue to be a serious threat upon both Israel and the entire world." While intelligence assessments are not absolute, he went on, that last statement can most certainly be characterized as absolute. And while Iran is now chortling with pleasure at the stand-back of U.S. intelligence, claiming that it now stands vindicated of all charges, nothing could be further from the truth. The challenge Iran poses to the stability of the region and to the very existence of Israel remains undiluted by this abrupt turn-about in U.S. intelligence.
Which might lead one to expect that what the revelation represents is an opportunity for President Bush to pull back from his belligerent approach to the situation, verging on a promise to invade Iran and bringing upon its people the same type of savage misfortune that has prevailed within Iraq. An option held to be most unpopular within the country. Such an invasion, and the bombing promises inherent in previous mumblings would result in many deaths, although it would be unlikely to result in the kind of disastrous civil violence witnessed now in Iraq. Simply because there are not competing sectarian religious factions.
The reality of the situation remains grim. Iran, under its current theocratic fundamentalist totalitarian rule is a danger to the region and to the existence of Israel, already more than sufficiently embattled by her persistently offensive neighbours, not to speak of jihadist Hamas and Hezbollah - both incidentally funded and trained by Iran. Yet, if common sense prevails, perhaps there are other avenues whereby the current state structure and administration by the Ayatollahs could be turned around toward some semblance of reason.
Diplomatic overtures of a more useful type where each of the solitudes has an opportunity to begin to recognize one another as human beings whose humanity determines that they must be reckoned with fairly and with justice, could conceivably come about. Belligerence and aggression beget the same. Violence and close-mindedness serve the violent and the close-minded well in guaranteed reciprocation. If the stalemate could be breached, and normal human values held in common brought into play much might be achieved.
Talking and maneuvering rather than threats and war are always the preferred options. We tend too often to let that slip our perceptions, and let ourselves slide into the last conceivable options instead. Fair attempts at negotiations can work. Instead of demonizing individuals and groups, to approach in good faith, inviting the opposite to do the same most generally has its effect; not always, but worth the attempt. Persuading Iran that her best options are to permit ongoing oversight by the International Atomic Energy Commission is a good start.
Worth a try, at the very least. Dampen down the rhetoric, even if it only meets that of Ahmadinejad; it appears to give him great satisfaction, to demonstrate to his uneasy population that he is capable of "standing up to" and challenging the greatest powers on earth. The man is delusional, a megalomaniac whose continued presence at the notional helm of government, tweaked by the Ayatollahs, is a mystery to onlookers who tend to believe that his rantings represent the values and the intents of the Iranian population.
Admittedly, it's difficult to deal with the psychosis prevalent in the Middle East that the West seeks to overpower it politically and to diminish the importance of its religious beliefs, bringing scorn to bear on the Prophet and Islam. All the more so when overtures of any kind are seen as victories, when attempts at conciliation and concessions are interpreted not as opening a stage for comprehension between adversaries and future openings for co-operation and mutual acceptance, but a sign of weakness.
There are so many imponderables, so many little mysterious quirks and foibles to be addressed when dealing with leading actors on the stage of the Middle East. So many sensitivities to be cognizant of, so many pitfalls in aligning with one state to the detriment of another; an ever-altering landscape of peculiar bedfellows playing musical pillows as determined by the currents of whoever happens to be at the helm at any particular time, playing off against a still-primitive tribal mentality.
Labels: Middle East, Troublespots
posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, December 05, 2007
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