Now Here's A Conundrum
Another one of those puzzlers, and how to effectively proceed, honourable intentions intact.In that Egypt, that huge Mideast country with its lost aspirations to be acknowledged as the religious, moral, social and political standard-bearer in the region, now reconciled to its position as being at peace with embattled Israel, and in the good financial bookings of the United States presents insoluble problems. It was Anwar Sadat who made his stunning bid for peace with Israel, and murdered for his efforts, by the Muslim Brotherhood.
And it was his vice-president who ascended to the autocratic head of the country and there Hosni Mubarak has remained ever since as president for the last 26 years. Ruling his fractious country with a steady and determined hand and with no intention of stepping down anytime soon. The United States, so eager to spread the germ of democracy throughout the region, accepts the status quo, and provides Egypt with quite a funding cache.
And is Egypt destined to be ruled forever by its current despot? There is some opposition to the current political state of affairs not by Islamists (though that fundamentalist Islamists chafe against President Mubarak's middle-of-the-road rule is a given) but by a secular candidate with decidedly progressive leanings, Ayman Nour. Mr. Nour is a champion of democratic rule, of free speech, an independent media, the right of assembly, economic opportunities and the separation of mosque and state.
Mr. Nour's agenda clearly reflects that of most Western democracies, a true breath of fresh air. But is Egypt ready for such a transformation, particularly its vast voting public, long accustomed to voting as they've been informed they must for there is no other choice? That's one huge question. Still, when Mr. Nour was grudgingly permitted to stand for election in September of 2005 he somehow managed to garner 7.3% of the vote. Which earned him some very special state treatment.
Mr. Nour had his parliamentary immunity removed, he was beaten and arrested, jailed, tortured and finally charged with the forging of over a thousand voting signatures. He was released on bail thanks to an international outcry, but when his trial concluded he was found guilty of all charges brought against him and sentenced to 5 years' imprisonment. During his trial the prosecution's chief witness against Mr. Nour claimed his testimony was falsely delivered, as he had no choice because his family's safety had been threatened.
The witness, Ayman Ismail Hassan, was also found guilty, alongside Mr. Nour. In prison he suffered torture and finally committed suicide there, by hanging himself. Mr. Nour's lawyers had been denied access to key documents, their questions to witnesses were declared invalid, and it was no little wonder the state was able to declare Mr. Nour guilty as charged. Since his imprisonment petitions for his release have steadily gone nowhere. The U.S. House of Representatives involved itself in trying to secure this man's release.
Mr. Nour is in extremely poor health as a diabetic suffering from heart disease and retinal disease, both by-products of long-term diabetes. The dreadful interrogations he was submitted to, along with the physical abuse traditionally meted out to political prisoners have not served to improve his already frail health. Those who support him internally, along with very high-profile international supporters have been unable to secure his release; he remains, quite simply, a threat to the current administration.
Mind, so is the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood, once outlawed post-Sadat assassination, then later legalized, has many followers in the country anxious to drag Egypt into a fundamentalist Islamist administration through means foul and fouler. The Muslim Brotherhood has champions throughout the Middle East; their jihadist mentality succeeded in producing Hamas as one of their offshoot affiliates, in their "struggle" toward regional fascist Islam.
And there's the rub: international experts on the Middle East situation caution that what happened in the Palestinian Authority could be repeated elsewhere, when push comes to shove. Democracy in action in the Middle East doesn't quite play out as Western interests anticipate it might, not when there are sufficient members of the voting public in the Arab street who support Islamic fundamentalism. That old adage, to be careful what you wish for applies here in flying colours.
So, really - what to do? Egypt, like Jordan and Lebanon and Saudi Arabia are fighting their own internal battles against fervent jihadism, violent terror groups in their midst. Theirs is the front line against Islamic terrorism. And here's another puzzler; they're often also enablers of the very groups that cause such great concern world wide. They're conflicted within their borders and conflicted in their options and selections.
Take Egypt's peace agreement with Israel, which concluded with the proviso that Egypt not station armed forces on their common border. Yet, when Israel unilaterally pulled back from Gaza and Egypt was enlisted to patrol the Egypt-Gaza border, an exception was obviously in order. So Israel has become reliant upon Egypt to ensure that smuggling across the border into Gaza does not occur. But that smuggling does occur; the smuggling of gunmen, of arms, of supplies, even of sought-after terrorists who slip over into Gaza from their permanent positions elsewhere in the region.
What's more, the smuggling occasionally occurs with the practical physical assistance of Egyptian soldiers stationed on the border for the express purpose of ensuring it doesn't happen. The area is criss-crossed with tunnels, most of which escape detection even by alert and suspicious patrols. Smuggling of people and armaments through Egypt into Gaza is a thriving business; so thriving in fact that Hamas has undertaken to charge a protection fee of thousands of dollars upon enterprising smugglers.
The helpful Egyptian police have been instrumental in assisting Hamas terrorists to cross illegally into Gaza, conveniently creating an opening in the border fence for that purpose. Egyptian border police have also assisted in the transporting of weapons from the Sinai through tunnels under the Philadelphi Route which was entrusted to them by Israel, and from there into the PA within Gaza. The IDF knows all this because the surreptitiously clandestine enterprise was videotaped.
Yet Israel has seen the benefits of exercising caution, by determining it would not be in their best interests to alienate Egypt by exposing this underground development to the light of day, although the temptation to inform the U.S. is certainly there, as an indication that Egypt's claims that it is engaged in trying to find a just solution between Israel and the PA are to be taken with a grain of salt. And Israel is in dire need of all the help it can get, even from an overtly hostile political-public environment in a country that has signed a peace treaty with it.
Yet despite its decision to withhold information on Egypt's collusion, it became obvious that the truth emerged from some interested source. the result being that the U.S. Congress decided to hold back part of the United States' $1.3 billion allocation to the country on condition that Egypt take verifiable steps to "detect and destroy the smuggling network and tunnels leading from Egypt to Gaza".
And of course Egypt is more than a little infuriated with Israel as a result: "We are not revealing a secret when we say that the pro-Israel lobby has played a role in issuing this decision to achieve its well-known objectives and interests" claimed Hossam Zaki, Egypt's foreign ministry spokesman.
Speaking of tangled webs, nothing is ever quite as it seems on the surface in the Middle East.
Labels: Middle East, Troublespots
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, December 25, 2007
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