Stay Attuned
Will they or won't they? Much depends on the potential target, needless to say. And Iran remains defiant and rigidly determined to carry on with its program of enriching uranium. Why not? it's been ordained as their sacramental right. There's nothing the world at large, or the United Nation's top representatives can offer to dissuade a righteously-resurgent Iranian theocracy, belligerent in their determination to become another nuclear power.For, they claim, nuclear power, as opposed to the power to use nuclear armaments. While at the same time making no secret of their true agenda, through triumphant and oft-repeated assurances to the Iranian nation of repeated success in the mission. Whom the leadership imagines waits with bated breath for the final victory they will be brought to when Israel is confronted with weaponry equal to its own. Wouldn't that be a show-down?
One that only those who have completely lost the balance of their reason would even contemplate. Major-General Mohammad Ali Jafari, chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, has minced no menacing words in assuring of Iran's intent to launch retaliatory strikes on Israel. Either before or after - or simultaneously - to halting the traffic of international oil shipments through its territorial Strait of Hormuz.
There are predictions from all imaginable sources. They're retracted as premature, then they resurface. And then, of course, there are tangible and rather sobering events geared to instruct all onlookers that the capability is there, the intent is intact, awaiting only final confirmation that Iran has, or will shortly succeed in its mission to secure nuclear armaments. Once it becomes obvious that Iran has produced enriched uranium sufficient to produce its first nuclear missile head.
Assurances from Israeli intelligence agents are that this will occur within the next year or so. The window of opportunity for a carefully crafted mission to wipe out the installations placed throughout the country is neigh, according to the experts. It's extremely nervous-making, but accepted as a practical reality, not only by Israel, but its neighbours, by NATO countries, by the European Union, the United States.
The recently-conducted bombing-run drills have paved the way. That Iran has acquired or will shortly acquire Russian SA-20 surface-to-air precision missile batteries is yet another obstacle for Israel. Once the defence system is in place success in its mission to destroy those critical dozen installations becomes more remote. And Iran's offensive system of missile installations are improving in calibre, thanks to Russia's willingness to sell its own latest creations.
Should it come to pass, a massive air raid of that calibre would represent a miracle if it succeeded, since it would require so many air sorties to ensure that the underground sites were completely demolished. Some of the tunnels are so deep, and so massively constructed it might take far more than conventional weapons to destroy them. And that's another story.
The full story is that this would still represent only a stop-gap. As long as Iran remains relatively wealthy through its oil resources, and as long as the country remains rigidly adamant about its agenda for geographic dominance, including the promised annihilation of Israel, such an attack would represent only a short-term breathing spell.
And then, of course, there's the potential after-effect of such an attack. Even if other Islamic nations in the geography sit on their hands, there's the formidable collective of well armed and organized jihad-determined allies that Iran enjoys, from Syria, to Hezbollah and Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Israel claims it will embark on that mission only as a last resort, if all else fails.
The world is not ready for the kind of political, social and economic disruption that will impact on everyone in the event of such a cataclysmic upheaval. An attack would cause a huge increase in costs of energy in an already volatile market with high current energy costs impacting deleteriously on travel, transportation, food production.
"Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz and we will not allow them to", according to Vice-
Admiral Kevin Cosgriff of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Well, something is certainly cooking, with the Bush administration allocating $400-million on covert operations inside Iran. Yet Professor Anthony Cordesman, former U.S. Director of Intelligence, claims the United States has no intention of becoming involved in a strike on Iran. At the present time.
There is, he stresses, however, a contingency plan, should further diplomatic avenues prove fruitless in persuading Iran to stand down from its hostile position. The U.S. he claims, doesn't see Iran reaching success in acquiring either nuclear weapons or effective systems of delivery. "If that assessment changes then our timing might change. I suspect that is going to be an issue for President Obama or President McCain."
Or a go-it-alone Israel. The critical question is, could such an ambitious plan of attack possibly succeed? Israel has demonstrated its capability in the past. Who really knows? In the final analysis only the eventuality of a need to proceed will prove the success or failure of a bold initiative brought to life through emergency existential need.
Labels: Israel, Technology, Troublespots, United Nations, United States
posted by Pieface @ Monday, July 07, 2008
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