Monday, May 18, 2009

In The Throes - Of What?

The United Nations has declared a dire situation unfolding in Pakistan's Swat Valley with hundreds of thousands of desperate Pakistani tribal villagers attempting to evade the war zone a humanitarian disaster in the making.

While Pakistani troops resolutely battle the Taliban for control of the country's Swat valley in ferocious battles a mere 100 miles from Islamabad, fearful civilians are attempting to flee the battle area. It is estimated that one million civilians have thus far fled to safety. And military officials suspect that among the refugees now being housed in temporary refugee camps some Taliban have managed to mingle with them, dressed in civilian garb, shaved of their typical facial hair.

The government of Pakistan has persuaded the international community that it is highly aware that this is a battle for its longevity as a government, for the country as a moderate and secular democracy. The impoverished country is hugely dependent on the billions of aid it receives from the United States, determined to push and shove the country to destroy the Taliban and with it, the al-Qaeda safe havens between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The agreement the government made with the Taliban in Swat, trading Sharia for peace, led to a final recognition that there is no pacification of the Taliban.

Once the terror groups entered Mingora, leading them close to the country's nuclear installations and military weapons caches, it became glaringly clear even to the most optimistic ostrich in the Pakistani administration that they were leading the country toward the kind of Islamification that would render it a victim to fanatical Islam, creating a nuclear time bomb for the world at large.

Pakistan resisted efforts by Washington to agree to enabling the U.S. to assist in safe-guarding their elderly nuclear devices, insisting it had the wherewithal to protect them on their own. The international community had nightmare visions of militant Islam taking possession of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal, relatively crude and few as they are.

But the U.S. Congress has now been briefed about the disposition of billions in American military aid delivered to Pakistan being utilized in a way they hadn't anticipated.

Matthew Cavanaugh/European Pressphoto Agency Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, during a Senate hearing on Thursday.
The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen, advised Congress of an increase in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal; that Pakistan, while in the throes of battling and controlling the Taliban advance has expended huge sums on new nuclear arms, producing an increasing nuclear arsenal at the very time that the old weapons presented for increasing concerns they might fall into the hands of Islamist terrorists.

Pakistan is busy with the production of new bomb-grade uranium and building a series of new reactors toward a new generation of weapons. For a country whose president recently declared itself in a position of existential concern, committed to battling a resurgent, well-armed and determined Islamist army, this dilution of attention and resources to re-stocking and modernizing the country's nuclear armaments more than adequately reflects its traditional priorities.

That the country is in no position to demonstrate its ability to protect that arsenal from falling into the hands of terrorists, along with its traditional mode of appeasement of those same terrorists gives no comfort to wary onlookers. A Brookings Institution scholar, Bruce Riedel, co-author of the U.S. president's review of the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy pointed out that Pakistan "has more terrorists per square mile than anyplace else on earth, and it has a nuclear weapons program that is growing faster than anyplace else on earth."

The country is in a chaotic condition in its battle against terrorism, funded by an American administration that chose to believe it was funding counter terrorism, now confounded by the reality that an independent country will comport itself in accordance with its values and priorities. And clearly Pakistan's priorities have always been to arm itself with the latest in nuclear weapons technology, while playing off the intent of the fundamentalists against national interests.

A blueprint for potential future collapse of a state neglectful of its internal priorities and international obligations. Scary as all hell.

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