Monday, April 12, 2010

Nuclear Summitry

"The central focus of this nuclear summit is the fact that the single biggest threat to U.S. security - short-term, medium-term and long-term would be the possibility of a terrorist organization obtaining a nuclear weapon." U.S. President Barack Obama
Of course the next "biggest threat", or perhaps even superseding the "single biggest threat" is the very real possibility of a rogue government itself using a nuclear weapon to assert its perceived authority. Two states come to mind, both ruled by fundamentally narcissistic and intellectually deranged tyrannical authorities: Iran and North Korea.

Would they be amenable to politely listening to the arguments put forward of the imperative of limiting nuclear arsenals and their use, and safe-guarding their elements from falling into the hands of non-state crazies?

We don't even have to look at Iran and North Korea. There is always Pakistan, a country utterly obsessed with detestation for its huge neighbour, India. A Pakistan convinced that India's intent is to mount a nuclear attack upon it, to re-claim its surrendered territory, and to once and for all, settle its problems with radical Islamists.

This is the very same Pakistan that the United States has latterly hailed as a brother-at-arms. An impoverished state, just like Iran and North Korea, which, while eagerly grasping funding from the U.S., funnels its treasury into increased nuclear arms production.

What real sense does it make to preach to the converted? The U.S. has signed pacts with both India and Pakistan, the former a staunch democracy, stable and reliable, the latter a neurotic, hate-obsessed, terrorist-funding state, neither of which have signed on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

While Israel, a democratic, civil and reliable Western-outlook friend of the U.S. is left to languish under U.S. disapproval over its existential policies. To the unfortunate extent that its president gets a public tongue-lashing, while errant states are soft-talked.

Under the new Obama administration Israel's nuclear scientists have been denied travel visas to the U.S., where previously those same scientists working at Israel's Dimona reactor regularly travelled to U.S. universities for physics, chemistry and nuclear engineering knowledge upgrades. In addition an equipment embargo has been imposed, with a refusal to sell needed nuclear-related parts to be used at Israel's reactor; a complete reversal of former friendly exchanges and relations.

As for the summit, much hailed by President Obama as yet another new world-class enterprise by his administration, its purpose is to encourage governments of the necessity to secure existing plutonium and highly enriched uranium from falling into suspect hands. Global stockpiles of such materials are estimated to be of sufficient quantities to build an additional 100,000 atom bombs.

A laudable goal, that, one that the U.S. has been engaged in for quite some time, ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, in fact; engaged in helping secure Soviet-era nuclear-parts and bomb-making materials.

But there are other verities and huge areas of concern that the summit will not address. Beside the constant threats posed by Iran and North Korea, there is Pakistan, a country that has helped proliferate nuclear availment, and which has supported, trained and armed jihadists.

And which has the additional distinction of hosting on its soil, Taliban insurgents along with Al-Qaeda, both of which are indistinguishable in their goals, one from the other. And it is Pakistan that is throwing up a roadblock on a treaty to halt production of new nuclear material globally.

Pakistan represents a country of extreme hostilities, an unstable, volatile country in an unstable, volatile part of the world. And it has accelerated production of fissionable materiel.
The U.S. has been funding and building on a program to safeguard Pakistan's arms and materials, and here is Pakistan gearing up for enlarged production. Claiming it has no other option, urgently needing to protect itself from India's nuclear intentions.
"I feel confident that Pakistan has secured its nuclear weapons. I am concerned about nuclear security all around the world, not just in Pakistan but everywhere. One of my biggest concerns has to do with the loose nuclear materials that are still floating out there." U.S. President Barack Obama
And while Turkey and Egypt plan to focus on accusing Israel of skulduggery in its ownership of nuclear weapons, its unwillingness to sign onto the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Preferring a policy of 'ambiguity' about its nuclear status and strategy, it has never posed a risk to its neighbours through threatening to use its nuclear weapons, considering them required deterrence.

Yet taking up the much more obvious dangers inherent in the Pakistan-India arms race is considered to be "too politically divisive", by U.S. administration officials.

"Our expectation is not that there's just some vague, gauzy statement about us not wanting to see loose nuclear materials. We anticipate a communique that spells out very clearly, here's how we're going to achieve locking down all the nuclear materials over the next four years with very specific steps in order to assure that." U.S. President Barack Obama

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