generalspeaking

Another Crisis for Lebanon

When Lebanon is back in the news it is never good news. The country once viewed as the 'riviera' of the Middle East with its superb natural endowments and the grace of its people has long since surrendered to vicious sectarian and ideological violence. Its gradual collapse from a proud civil state to a hapless satrapy whose neighbours manipulated its politics has left it balancing internal antipathies between sectarian Muslims and Christians and Druze, hugely destructive civil wars and assassinations.

Syria and Iran have for far too long demonstrated their hegemonic powers over the country which once held its own share of values with the West. The Shiite militia Hezbollah, beloved of the Palestinians in their squalid refugee camps long held as repulsive interlopers without rights in Lebanon have ensured that political and social peace within the country remains elusive, held captive by political and ideological divisions.

It was only when former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, an heatedly outspoken critic of Syria's grasp on Lebanon was assassinated in 2005 that the outraged reaction of the international community in sympathy with the country's tragic loss of a great leader, caused Syria to reluctantly withdraw, ostensibly leaving Lebanon to rule itself - while leaving in place Syria's and Iran's proxy Hezbollah in their volatile war with Israel.

In the wake of the country's grief over Rafiq Hariri's assassination, and the deaths of 22 other people through the powerful blast that killed Mr. Hariri, a Special Tribunal for Lebanon under UN auspices was formulated as an international court, created by a 2007 UN Security Council resolution - at Lebanon's request. Now that the court has reached its conclusion over allocating responsibility for the assassination, Hezbollah has reacted as it warned it would.

Where initially the finger of suspicion was pointed directly at Syria, it now points at Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, ensconced for his personal safety in Syria. Nasrallah has warned that Hezbollah is prepared to "cut off the hand" of anyone who might think to arrest any of its members. And that proposal to arrest some key leading members of Hezbollah appears to be in the offing.

Saad Hariri now the prime minister of Lebanon, has met with Syria and Iran, and now with the president of the United States. Saudi Arabia attempted to intervene, to persuade Lebanon to ignore the findings of the Hariri tribunal to ensure that civil war would not once again occur with Hezbollah's threats put in motion. With the support of the U.S. which insists that the UN tribunal must present its findings, Mr. Hariri turned down the Saudi recommendation.

Hezbollah and its supporting political partners suddenly withdrew from the country's unity government causing it effectively and dramatically sending a pointed message, to collapse. Mr. Hariri remains as prime minister despite the dissolution of the government, but no government business may now be conducted under Lebanese law that requires all its religious communities to be represented in its sitting parliament.

A complex situation whereby the U.S. is attempting to persuade Syria to withdraw from its close supportive association with Iran, and to draw Syria into negotiations for peace with Israel has been compounded by the U.S. need to continue its long-time support for the current Lebanese government to the detriment of Hezbollah, while in doing so it offends Syria.

Hezbollah's threats at the prospect of an imminent denouement has transfixed the entire Middle East in the prospect of potential violence certain to emanate from the disclosure of the tribunal's findings. The Hezbollah leadership has resorted to denouncing the tribunal as an "Israeli project", which Mr. Hariri should reject. But which he has no plans to do, and which a Cabinet minister claims reflects that he has "succumbed to foreign and American pressures."

Perhaps, on the other hand, he seeks to honour his father's memory. Perhaps he seeks to restore Lebanon to its previously respected place as a tolerant, moderate mixed religious society as it presented before the flood of Palestinian refugees complicated its existence when Yasser Arafat mounted attacks over the border into Israel, and for which Hezbollah has since taken up the jihadist mantle toward the destruction of the State of Israel.

For that, ultimately, is what much of this theatrical and volatile tumult is about. Aside, of course, from the fact that Middle East states have been habitually at one another's throats, Israel aside.

Labels: Middle East, Traditions, Troublespots

posted by Pieface @ Thursday, January 13, 2011