generalspeaking

"It Is Almost a Certitude"

"The question we can't answer is: Are they 2% of the opposition? Are they 20%? Or are they 80%?"
"It is almost a certitude" says a former CIA expert with the Brookings Institute, that some portion of the Libyan opposition is comprised of al-Qaeda members.

In Libya the rebel opposition has been experiencing some setbacks. Among which are some losses. Among which are disagreements between the leaders of the opposition. Among which has been the suspicion among those who are weighing the risks of providing weapons to the rebels. Among which, tellingly, is the fact that the rebel militias are disorganized, untrained, basically without weapons capable of counteracting those of the Gadhafi forces.

One might assume that the regime's military defectors should be capable of some on-the-spot training so that some kind of discipline and cohesiveness could be achieved but such doesn't seem to be the case. Although it is a tall order, to haul together the ragtag army of people from ordinary walks of life who have no familiarity with arms and fighting, aside from a desire to defend themselves.

So the counterattacks of the rebels against the government forces, well trained and armed and determined to do Colonel Gadhafi's bidding remain at a clear disadvantage. But there is another, hidden element there, one that no one connected with the insurgency has any desire to underline to cause suspicion and draw support away from them.

That they have, without doubt, either been infiltrated or have been combined with at the outset, Islamists, those who are well accustomed to fighting, having done so in Iraq and Afghanistan and anywhere that the Taliban and al-Qaeda make their presence in challenging the Western presence.

And there, then, is the twofold challenge facing the NATO-run Western/Arab alliance.

That Gadhafi himself has cleverly - or his military hierarchy has - recognized the need to camouflage themselves to protect against NATO-led air strikes. To that end, they have taken the measure of abandoning their armoured vehicles and tanks in opposing the opposition forces and begun to use instead the same kind of pick-up trucks fitted with weapons, confusing those monitoring the no-fly zones.

How to tell the regime opposition from government forces from the air? The greater mobility also allows them to use their artillery, their mortars to great advantage without fear of being bombed from above.

"When Gadhafi's forces are close to the civilians we hope to safeguard, the utility of our air power is greatly reduced, but they retain the ability to use artillery, mortars, and ground troops."

And then there is the troubling facts on the ground. That U.S. intelligence knows there is al-Qaeda activity within the rebel groups in the country. NATO's operations commander affirmed that, following al-Qaeda's third-ranking official's issuance of a video on jihadist Internet sites urging that Islamists take up arms against Col. Gadhafi.

So isn't that a paradox to puzzle the curious mind? NATO and Western powers, along with those Arab states who have invested in removing the scourge of Libya are battling alongside al-Qaeda. The very group whose main agenda is the disablement by any means possible, of Western democratic society, is linked with them, in a struggle to overthrow Moammar Gadhafi.

It is clear what the NATO/Arab group means to achieve in giving assistance to the rebels whom they initially assumed were entirely comprised of Libyan civilians whose tolerance for tyranny had expired. It is, on the other hand, equally clear what al-Qaeda means to achieve, in responding to the opportunity to take advantage of this unforeseen struggle.

Primacy in destroying current regimes and replacing them with their global agenda.

They have already been enabled by the chaos that has overtaken the country, to avail themselves of explosives for the manufacture of more improvised explosive devices for roadside bombs. Libyan rebels - or their al-Qaeda counterparts - have been able to take possession of 12 warehouses brimming with anti-vehicle mines in Benghazi and to loot another 35 warehouses of munitions in Ajdabiyah.

"Bin Laden has proved adept at exploiting civil wars and strife in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Iraq, among other countries." Initially working with local fighting groups challenging national authority, they have extended the struggle to a more global positioning. So who is leading whom to the brink of disaster yet again?

Labels: Africa, Terrorism, Traditions, Troublespots

posted by Pieface @ Monday, April 04, 2011