The Ongoing Syrian-Arab Spring
Syria is moving ever closer to outright civil war. The peaceful protests of the Sunni majority population of the country resulting in organized military attacks by the Syrian army, led by the Alawite regime's tribal supporters does not bode well for unity to be brought about by Bashar al-Assad's promises of reform.The clashes, in any event, have since passed the point of no return, with an estimated ten thousand military comprised of Sunni Syrians having deserted the larger army and forming a resistance movement of their own.
Dissidents have been receiving assurances and assistance from Turkey, once an ally of Syria. Turkey remains an ally of Iran, however, but perhaps not for too much longer. Since both Iran and Turkey harbour obvious aspirations to become what each once historically represented; the larger power within the world of Islam and the Middle East, spreading outward toward the greater Muslim community worldwide and beyond Islam.
A new representative authority in exile has been produced, the opposition Syrian National Council, sheltered in Istanbul, with intentions of overthrowing the Alawite (Shia) regime of President al-Assad. Together with the Syrian Free Army under the command of Col. Riad al-Asaad it is entirely possible that Bashar al-Assad's regime will become history, but not without excessive bloodshed should a full-blown civil war ensue.
And if it does, no onlooker can suppose that Iran will not become fully involved, nor that Iran's and Syria's proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah along with Hamas for good measure, will not also be actively brought into the picture. Hamas might find it problematical to enter the battle against other Sunni Muslims, however, though Hezbollah, a Shia partner with Iran would face no such constraints.
Which might then see Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt as well come into the picture. And wouldn't that bode well for the future of the geography in the wake of the Arab Spring that has turned into a dismal display of sectarian, ideological, tribal insecurities and suspicion-led accusations and counter-accusations?
Labels: Chaos, Conflict, Middle East, Syria
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, October 04, 2011
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