The Door Is Open
"The Iranian leadership has failed to restore international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program. We will not accept Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran has so far had no regard for its international obligations and is already exporting and threatening violence around its region."And this is how Germany, France and England, through Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy have explained their unprecedented move to impose what they claim will be truly sweeping sanctions against Iran, along with a crippling oil embargo. Duly warned, the Islamic Republic of Iran cannot be surprised, just ragingly disgruntled.
But that just happens to be their usual characteristic response to anything coming out of the West. Hardly surprising since just about anything coming out of the West is denunciatory and inflammatory toward an honourably innocent theocracy that wishes nothing more than to present the kindly and humanitarian face of Islam to the world. Misunderstandings do occur with amazing regularity.
From On High did Ayatollah Ali Khamenei receive word that it is Iran's just due and destiny as a powerful nation among nations, and to the greater glory of Islam, to become a nuclear power. And what is a nuclear power without the ownership of nuclear warheads? Who, which reckless country with a death wish of their own, would dare attack, let alone threaten a country that owns nuclear weaponry?
Six United Nations resolutions have been ignored by Iran in the world's frantic attempts to have the country cease its uranium enrichment. "The door is open to Iran to engage in serious and meaningful negotiations about its nuclear program" - to no avail. The European Union stands united in its determination to enact "strong measures" to effectively demonstrate the "cost of a path that threatens the peace and security of us all".
The current oil-supply contracts exported from Iran to the EU-member countries and primary users like Italy, Greece and Spain who depend so hugely on that energy is set to expire on July 1. After which time no further agreements to import Iranian oil, a huge loss to Iran's treasury, would take place. Iran would have none of it. They undertook to cut off exports immediately. Snub them, they snub back.
The pain that will be experienced not just in Iran with the loss of its customary clients, and the need to sell its oil elsewhere, albeit at bargain-basement prices by potential clients who will take advantage of the opportunity to squeeze the country in its time of desperate need - will also be felt elsewhere, as the world and the EU seeks other sources to supply their energy needs.
Freezing financial assets held throughout Europe by the Iranian Central Bank will further erode the country's fluidity, and panic Iranians who see the value of their currency and savings evaporate before their very lapsed expectations. Despite the travails that others than Iran will suffer as a result of these emergency and required steps, there is an immense upside.
A bankrupt Iran will have to choose between continuing its defiant nuclear program and feeding its population. It will be forced to shut off its funding pipeline for Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria. Syria, its sole Arab ally in the Middle East is in desperate existential straits. Hezbollah and Hamas may become rather impatient with a source that can no longer fund them, although for Hezbollah in particular illicit drug trading has taken up the slack.
And should Iran feel itself forced to back up its threats by closing the Strait of Hormuz, it may yet bring down upon itself the muscular metal wrath of the United States, Britain, France and Israel. A persuasive argument to back off, at the very least. If one were dealing with rational, intelligent human beings.
Which is most definitely not the case, with the ruling Ayatollahs.
Labels: Britain, Conflict, France, Germany, Iran, United States
posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, January 25, 2012
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