Gaming Conflict
"Every kind of threat to the Turkish territory and the Turkish people will find us standing against it. Soldiers loyal to Assad fired shells at us, we immediately reacted and responded with double force. We shall never stop responding."
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Syria's sly apologies are belied by the continued shelling across the border. Initially, in a mood to defuse the tempered situation, the regime pulled its military back slightly from the border as though to avoid any further border skirmishes and outraged condemnation, but the six days since the initial barrage that killed five Turkish civilians have seen a continuation of the cross-border shelling.
It's difficult to believe that Bashar al-Assad is deliberately courting a clash with his former ally. But not too difficult to believe that he is so enraged by Turkey's assistance and encouragement to the rebel forces that he seeks revenge as much as he does the defence of his regime against the inroads that the Free Syrian Army has succeeded in making in its revolutionary zeal.
Turkey has spoken not one word of criticism against its great good friend Iran, that the Republican Guard and Iranian Basij militias have a large presence within Syria, that Iran is supplying its acolyte Syria with weapons and funding, and that its proxy militia Hezbollah is also actively present within the country. A peculiar omission.
Detaining the Syrian passenger jet delivered another signal to Damascus, as each side appears to be playing a chess game of strategic moves meant to confound the other. The 25 extra F-16 fighter jets deployed at the Diyarbakir air base in southeast Turkey appears to be another in the moves on that chessboard. It is a game that neither of the principals plans to evolve into actual combat.
Though Ankara is furious with the situation and Erdogan livid over the deliberate intrusions and the loss of life, both in Turkey and Syria, it appears he sought the theoretical support of NATO in group defence, not to haul NATO into a conflict it has no wish to pursue. Ironically, when NATO was invested in pursuing a conflict in Libya, Turkey, as a member of NATO chose to disengage itself.
The conflict could conceivably escalate. Turkey has one of the largest standing armies in the world. "If the humanitarian situation becomes even worse, where you have more massacres, where at some point even the Russians wouldn't block a UN Security Council resolution ... then who could do the job of protecting civilians? It would be Turkey in the first place", claimed Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"Turkey will continue to seek as many reassurances as it can, but Turkey will not put its foot down and demand a commitment from NATO. Turkey is aware of NATO's extreme reluctance about repeating a 'Libya-styled' campaign in Syria, a much more complex and difficult scenario. Turkey wants no part of such a campaign, either", hazarded Joshua Alvarez, managing editor of Instanbul- based Kalem Journal.
Labels: Conflict, Middle East, Misadventure, Revolution, Societal Failures, Syria, Turkey
posted by Pieface @ Thursday, October 11, 2012
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