Monday, May 27, 2013

Convoluted Realpolitik 

It really is too bad that Iran's Guardian Council has hearkened to the orders of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and disallowed Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, to run again for president of the country. One supposes, at the very least, that Ayatollah Khamenei has had enough wrangling with a president who has his own mind and pursues his own ideological interests rather than simply adhering to that of the Supreme Leader.

Perhaps the Ayatollah is mindful of the need to ensure that financial corruption does not besmirch his country. Although Rafsanjani's very private business acumen has given him wealth said to be in the area of $1.1-billion by Forbes, he was credited when he was president during the Iran-Iraq war with leading the country to economic recovery. Although under the current regime which he would like to contest formally by running for the presidency, his son and daughter are both charged with financial skulduggery.

On the other hand, there is the wide-ranging holdings of Ayatollah Khamenei whose control of a substantial portion of the Iranian economy through holdings and foundations dwarfs that of Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader controls, among other enterprises the Imam Khomeini Foundation. The heads of various foundations are appointed by Khamenei, and don't pay tax, cannot be audited by parliament or the judiciary as personal properties of Ayatollah, separate from the structure of the Iranian state.

The financial empire of the Supreme Leader through the Imam Khomeini Foundation based on a statement of one of his foundation officials is roughly $45-billion representing real estate assets. Thirty six companies in the Tehran stock exchange are owned by the Imam Khomeini Foundation which also owns the Iran Telecommunication Company. He is, in other words, filthy rich.

And he can be assured of loyalty by the elite of the Republican Guard for they have been permitted to take control of much of the country's state assets, and as such have acquired huge private holdings making them incredibly wealthy as well. Somewhat like Russia's security apparatus, the heads of the former KGB, former colleagues of the agency that employed Vladimir Putin, being given the very same opportunities to acquire wealth, within Russia.

Russia's giant Gazprom enterprise, the profitable state-owned company that Vladimir Putin grew larger out of Yukos, owned by the oligarch Mikhail Khodorovsky when it was wrested away from him by Vladimir Putin when he had him arrested in 2003 on charges of fraud, embezzlement and money laundering, is now operated personally by President Putin. Shares of Yukos were frozen, and Mikhail Khodorovsky lost his standing as one of the richest men in the world. With the collapse of the company's share price it was bought out by Gazprom.

President Putin's share of the giant company that provides gas to Europe and has the stranglehold monopoly that Mr. Putin is invested in consolidating even further, particularly with the drop in gas prices, stands at roughly $4-billion. His vast wealth is the basis for his concern about controlling gas delivery, and shutting out any possible competitors. In 2008, Gazprom was valued at $365-billion, but its value has plunged to less than $100-billion today.

This makes President Putin very anxious to halt any further drop in its value that would put a substantial dent in his own personal wealth. Which goes far to understanding his complex relationships in the Middle East. His signing of a exclusive delivery contract with the state of Israel for one of its newly-discovered oil fields, and intention of another contract with an even more extensive, the Leviathan gas field.

And his wish to extend control to Syria's gas and that of Cyprus. It is control over distribution of the Levant Basin gas to ensure that Europe's needs remain dependent on Russia's Gazprom that motivates some of Russia's more enigmatic relationships in the Middle East.

Iran and Russia have much in common, and the wealth of its leaders is only one of those commonalities, their convulsive upheavals another, their corruption another, their violent reactions, internal suppression, autocratic rule and support of one another's ambitions inclusive.

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