Splitting Syria
"It is one of the hardest days all over Syria. If Qusair is finished, it will be the end of the revolution in Homs."
Rebel activist
His fears appear to be well realized. Syria state news media claim that the army has succeeded in its mission and "restored security and stability" to most of Qusair. Many fighters were killed, many others captured. Understandably, Syrian state news media may not have lingered on the fact that an estimated 50 Hezbollah fighters, along with one high-placed commander also died in the conflict. One that is taking a rather steep price-tag.
The escalation of hostilities and the determination of the regime to recapture what it so ignominiously and strategically lost also holds promise of other, even more devastating tribulations to come on the near horizon. If the Homs area is sufficiently cleared of the rebel army presence, its population becomes more vulnerable to revenge atrocities. Since the majority Syrian Sunni population rose against their Shia taskmasters, the ultimate price will be extracted.
The Syrian military, along with its Hezbollah Shia fighters, better trained and equipped than the regime's military, pushed into the strategic city with airstrikes and artillery. Civilians can do nothing but hope to be spared, while militants are being killed and wounded in their emergency defensive positions. The municipal office building along with 60 percent of the city was in control of the army, according to grieving activists.
Qusair, on the Lebanon border, was a critical conduit for arms supply routes both for rebel suppliers and for the supply of the regime's military. Saudi government spokespeople anonymously advised that support and ammunition is reaching insurgents in Qusair courtesy of Persian Gulf countries which have restrained themselves from direct involvement. Should the Syrian government succeed in control of supply routes further deliveries to the rebels will become more challenging.
"They are getting help, but the other side is much stronger and better equipped and trained", said the opposition figure. Thus far it is all proxies who have become involved in support of Bashar al-Assad. While the Persian Gulf countries with their immense wealth and manpower under arms have urged the West to declare themselves involved. It is the West involvement, particularly that of the United States that has historically been a matter of Muslim disaffection.
Arab/Muslim countries need scapegoats; none seem to be willing to commit themselves to pursuing agendas that should be seen as minding internal affairs. Why else have an Arab League, after all? Is its only function an administrative/planning one, to gather for the purpose of condemning the State of Israel? As it is, both the Syrian regime and the Syrian rebels have faulted Israel for supporting the other. While Israel has no desire to support either.
President al-Assad is of the belief that reasserting control in Homs province is critical for him to maintain control of the population centres in western Syria. That control is required to enable his military to retake territory held by the rebels in the north and the east of the country. Those who study the situation, however, seem to feel through their analysis, that control of those areas will never be regained by the government.
Consolidation of its hold on the west, however, could lead to a division of the country.
Labels: Conflict, Hezbollah, Revolution, Syria
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, May 21, 2013
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