Turkey Doomed To Collapse?
Is this a chain reaction or mass
epidemic? Either way, the fact remains - the political upheavals in the
Muslim world that began in Tunisia swept across North Africa and Syria,
and now a wave of instability has reached Turkey. A member of the
Presidium of the Academy of Geopolitical Issues Araik Stepanyan analyzed
this complex, ambiguous situation in the country.
"We will identify the external and internal factors that have caused, for the lack of a better word, social unrest in Turkey.
Internal factors have deep roots. The
main reason is the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after the First World
War and the Turkish Republic established by the "father of the Turks"
Kemal Ataturk. He decided to raise the status of the ethnic Turks that
was low in the Ottoman Empire, turning them into an overriding ethnic
group and create a political nation - the Turks.
In 1926, a law was passed stating that
all residents of Turkey were ethnic Turks, and different names - the
Kurds, Armenians, Laz, Circassian, and so on - were insulting to the
Turkish national identity and must not be used. Everybody was recorded
as Turks. And, although many years have passed, the first problem in
Turkey is a problem of national identity.
There is a huge mass of people, more
than half of today's Turkish population, who do not consider themselves
Turks. They see themselves as citizens of Turkey, but ethnically they do
not identify themselves with the Turks, and do not want to. But because
they live in the country where they have to be Turks to have a chance
for a career, they are considered Turks. In 2000-2002, Western funds
conducted a secret survey of the Turkish population and obtained
evidence that only 37 percent of all Turkey residents saw themselves as
ethnic Turks. The national issue has aggravated, and rallies and slogans
are convincing evidence.
The second internal factor that
undermines today's Turkey is a debate about the type of the government -
secular or theocratic. The elite of modern Turkey have serious
disagreements about this. The heirs of the Ottoman Empire believe that
the highest level of prosperity in Turkey was in the days of the Ottoman
Empire, where all citizens were equal, except for Christians, and
ethnicity was not emphasized. That means, people were Osman regardless
of the ethnicity - the Turks, Circassian, or Kurds.
Third internal factor is the Kurdish
issue. The Kurds are seeking autonomy in Eastern Anatolia (the largest
region of Turkey), their number is approximately 20 million. Despite the
talks started by Erdogan (negotiations with Barzani, president of the
Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq, and Ocalan, the PKK leader) armed
clashes between Kurdish rebels and the official Turkish army continue,
with daily casualties on both sides. Thus, this is the third most
important factor.
The fourth factor is the Armenian issue.
Armenians living in the south-eastern and eastern Anatolia, the
original Armenian territories of Western Armenia, have, so to speak,
their hidden aspirations. They are hidden because they have bitter
experience of being eliminated and thrown out. The Turkish elite, the
intelligentsia, too, in turn, realizes that it is impossible not to
recognize the Armenian Genocide. About three thousand Turkish
intellectuals on Turkish websites apologized to the Armenians for the
Genocide and eviction. Then there was football diplomacy with signing
the agreement on opening the border between Turkey and Armenia. The
Armenians are now fighting with diplomatic methods.
Turkish demographic policy denies all
other nationalities. Turkey strongly advocates that 82 percent of the
population is Turks. But for obvious reasons this is not the case. There
is a vast array of Greek Muslims who do not even speak the Turkish
language and as many Bulgarian Muslims.
There are Armenians who speak Kurdish,
Armenians who speak Turkish and Armenians who speak the Armenian
dialect. But the state considers them all Turks. This is not the case,
but a reason to oppose the government in one form or another.
The fifth factor is internal - it's
Alawites, a religious movement with millions of people who adhere to the
same religious beliefs as Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian Alawi. When I see
banners proclaiming "Erdogan, you are a thief!" I understand that these
are Alawites. In the course of combat activities in Syria, Aleppo in
particular, gunmen took out everything - from machines to museum
exhibits, and exported them to Turkey, with the connivance of the
authorities, and sold or appropriated them.
But Gezi Park or Taksim Square where
rallies are held now is a special topic that overlaps, incidentally,
with the Armenian issue.
First, in 1500 sultan Suleiman presented
this territory to his Armenian assistant who uncovered a conspiracy. In
1560, an Armenian cemetery was laid there. The cemetery existed until
late 19th century and was eliminated after a well-known
cholera epidemic, but the ownership was left to the Armenian community.
After the genocide in 1915, when the Armenians were expelled, the owner
clearly changed. Barracks were built there, then a park. When the
authorities planned to build a shopping center, the community exploded.
All ethnic minorities, anti-globalization activists, gays, lesbians,
football fans, the "green" joined against the destruction of the park.
Clearly, everyone had different views and goals, but the only reason was
rejection of the current government that none of these social groups
liked. Yes, individually they are in the minority, but this is the case
where the sum of minorities produces the majority, incidentally, in
contrast to Russia.
There is also an external factor. The
U.S. lost interest in Turkey after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The
Turks tried to start building a new Turkic empire, the so-called Great
Turan based on pan-Turkism, but the Turkic-speaking states, newly formed
in the Soviet Union, gave the initiative a cold shoulder despite the
extent of the economic expansion of Turkey in these regions is
impressive.
The U.S. does not really support these
imperial ideas. Especially when Turkey did not provide its territory for
ground operations during the recent war in Iraq, did not let the
American ships into the Black Sea during the Russian-Georgian conflict
in 2008, incidentally, rightly so, in accordance with the international
status of the Black Sea and the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.
The White House is beginning to move
away from its ally. Moreover, according to the plan of a military expert
Ralph Peters of the National Military Academy of the United States, in
accordance with the concept of the Greater Middle East, Turkey is
disintegrated. A large Kurdistan is created, and Mount Ararat goes to
Armenia. Most important task, of course, is to take control of the
Bosporus and the Dardanelles, close access for Russia to the
Mediterranean Sea, and so on. The U.S. has a clear plan and is
implementing it. The European Union, of course, agrees with this plan.
America will not save Erdogan despite
the fact that he supported the Muslim extremists against Assad. Only
Assad is winning, and Turkey has lost its authority with the nearby
neighbors. It is likely to face open hostility, because no one has
forgotten the Ottoman Empire or the imperial motives of the Turkish
foreign policy. Turkish leaders have painted themselves into a
geopolitical trap. There are still chances of getting out of it, but,
judging by Erdogan's recent statements, they are becoming slimmer every
day.
All of these factors combined lead
Turkey to a collapse. It will not happen overnight, but the trend is
moving in this direction. All mass movements just show the causes, both
external and internal. Therefore, even if the military who wants to
overthrow Erdogan comes to power, and the constitution and the role of
the General Staff is restored, it will be impossible to stop the process
of globalization and crush the rebellion of ethnic groups.
Araik Stepanyan
Pravda.Ru
Labels: Conflict, Controversy, Islamism, Russia, Syria, Turkey, United States
<< Home