Monday, January 20, 2014

Syria crisis: Iran invite threatens Geneva peace talks

BBC News online -- 20 January 2014
Bashar al-Assad: Geneva "cannot replace the political process inside Syria"
Syria's Western-backed opposition has threatened to pull out of forthcoming peace talks in Switzerland, after the UN invited Iran to take part.

The National Coalition said Iran, a key backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, had not committed to the idea of a transitional government in Syria.

US officials say they expect the invite to be rescinded. Russia said the talks would be a "profanation" without Iran.

Mr Assad reiterated on Monday that the talks must focus on "terrorism".

Analysis

Washington has made it clear that the condition for Iran to participate in the Syria peace process - Geneva II - is that it accepts the outcome of the first Geneva conference of June 2012. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon believes that Iran understands this condition and thus has issued them with an invitation.
The Syrian opposition has in consequence thrown a question mark over its participation, undoing weeks of diplomatic arm-twisting by the US and its allies to encourage them to attend. Now, the UK for one wants Tehran to be more explicit about its backing for a transitional government in Syria. That may be a step too far for Iran.
Geneva II remains in the balance, but expectations should in any case be limited. The Western-backed opposition is not hugely representative of the fighting groups on the ground, and the Syrian regime is still insisting that President Assad hopes to play a future role.
His regime labels all rebel groups as terrorists, and stresses that they are backed by "foreigners".
In an interview with AFP news agency, Mr Assad also indicated he was not going to quit as president, saying he was likely to run for a third term.

He said the possibility of the National Coalition obtaining any ministerial positions in a new government was "totally unrealistic".

The National Coalition had initially refused to attend the talks because they wanted a guarantee that any transitional government would not involve Mr Assad.

They agreed to join the talks only two days ago, but now say that they will pull out unless the offer of Iran's participation is withdrawn by 19:00 GMT.

United Nation Secretary General Ban Ki-moon issued the invite to Iran after he had received assurances that the Iranians would play a "positive role" in securing a transitional government.
Iran has accepted the invitation to the talks "without preconditions".

The UN and Russia have long argued that Tehran should play a role.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he backed Mr Ban's decision to invite the Iranians, saying if they were absent "it will look like a profanation".

But the US, which has not had formal diplomatic relations with Tehran for three decades, has insisted Iran has to commit to a transitional government.

Geneva communique

A UN-backed meeting issued the document and urged Syria to:
  • Form transitional governing body that could include government and opposition
  • Start national dialogue
  • Review constitution and legal system
  • Hold free and fair elections
The BBC's Kim Ghattas in Washington says a US official told her that public statements given by Tehran fall short of the commitment given to Mr Ban in private, and that the US expects the invitation to be withdrawn.

The US has accused Tehran of giving military and financial support to Mr Assad's regime.
Preliminary talks are due to open in Montreux on Wednesday and then continue in Geneva two days later.

The path to the talks began in May last year when Mr Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry agreed to try to bring both sides together.

Later, the UN Security Council called for a conference to implement the Geneva communique - a deal on a transitional government agreed at a UN-backed meeting in 2012.

The three-year conflict in Syria has claimed the lives of more than 100,000 people.
An estimated two million people have fled the country and some 6.5 million have been internally displaced.

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