Saturday, January 24, 2015

Fact and Fantasy

"We're upholding the principle that bigger nations can't bully the small -- by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine's democracy and reassuring our NATO allies. Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, some suggested that Mr. Putin's aggression was a masterful display of strategy and strength. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters. That's how America leads -- not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve."
U.S. President Barack Obama
2015SOTU

Actually, it seems more as though America is no longer leading, but rather stumbling about here, there and anywhere. Under the current administration America seems at war with itself between its two polarized political parties, neither of which has any regard for the electorate of that great country believing that all its elected officials should be working in tandem for the greater good of its society, not using Washington as a great big boxing ring.

As for persistent, steady resolve, that's what is coming from the Islamic Repulic of Iran, not America. And the United States -- leading the G5+1 (Security Council members France, Britain, Russia, China, U.S. and Germany) in negotiations with Iran over its worrisome obsession with obtaining nuclear weapons to prove to the Middle East that it is Iran, not Saudi Arabia, that leads the Muslim nations -- has long since surrendered to the quiet belief that Iran will be accepted as a fledgling nuclear nation.

The failed process, in the long wake of the Obama administration stating time and again that under no circumstances must the world (the United States) allow Iran to advance its nuclear agenda, even if it means taking military action, is nothing to celebrate, and so had no mention in the State of the Union address, despite its vital importance as a global concern. Not the merest hint that the U.S. has backed Israel into the desperate corner of having to make an effort on its own to destroy Iranian nuclear ambitions.

As for Russian aggression in Ukraine and the brave words of celebratory resolve leading to the Russian bear's isolation, such bragging nonsense does not obscure the facts on the ground, that Crimea has been occupied by Russia and dragged into its geographic orbit, leaving Ukraine concerned that Moscow has not quite concluded its expansionist imperialism, eyeing more of eastern Ukraine for additional Russian acreage.

Hurting the Russian economy by the stringent efforts at imposed sanctions? Well, the European economy has been hit hard, but the Russians are known for their capacity to draw in their belts and tough out tough times, particularly with a president whose popularity is still in the stratosphere, held to be toughing it out despite the jealous aggression of the West. The U.S. has managed to manage things so that American exports to Russia have increased in 2014 to $10.22 billion from $10.18 in 2013.

Russian exports to the United States haven't done too poorly either with the U.S. importing $21.7 billion in 2014, admittedly down from $25.49 billion the year before, but not that big a hit after all, in sanctions for Russia. It is the Saudi oil production schedule that has hit Russia hard, hammering its oil profits and that by default, since the Saudis weren't targeting Russia, but the United States' new independence with fracturing production.

When Barack Obama visited the Baltic states to assure them that as NATO allies they would be safe from Russian ambitions to its wider expansion, those countries fearful of Russian aggression on their territorial integrity don't appear to have felt too reassured. Lithuania, as an example recently produced an emergency response manual to inform its citizens on actions they might take to respond to a possible Russian invasion.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko responded to the new emergency in Ukraine revolving around his military having to pull back their troops in eastern Ukraine, by leaving the international Davos party to fly back home. The Donetsk conflict with another bus hit by bombs and either side claiming the other responsible, while an increased presence of Russian troops and tanks served to boost the rebels' advance represents the situation in living colour.

So much for the egotistical display of administrative success by the Obama administration on the world stage, where long-time allies have become disengaged from the new U.S. agenda, and old enemies have suddenly become regimes with which the U.S. could see itself working....

Labels: , , ,

Follow @rheytah Tweet