generalspeaking

COVID-19 Initiation and Update

"In early December, a strange cluster of patients from a local seafood market, which also sold wildlife for consumption, started showing up in Wuhan hospitals. These initial patients developed a fever and pneumonia that did not seem to be caused by any known viruses. Given the SARS experience of 2003, local doctors were quickly alarmed. With any such novel virus, medical providers are keen to know how it spreads: If the virus is unable to spread from human to human, it’s a tragedy, but a local one, and for only a few people. If it can sustainably spread from human to human, as was the case with SARS, it could turn into a global pandemic, with potentially massive numbers of victims."
"Given exponential growth dynamics of infectious diseases, containing an epidemic is straightforward early on, but nearly impossible once a disease spreads among a population. So it’s maximally important to identify and quarantine candidate cases as early as possible, and that means leadership must have access to accurate information."
"Before the month of December was out, the hospitals in Wuhan knew that the coronavirus was spreading among humans. Medical workers who had treated the sick but never visited the seafood market were falling ill. On December 30, a group of doctors attempted to alert the public, saying that seven patients were in isolation due to a SARS-like disease. On the same day, an official document admitting both a link to the seafood market and a new disease was leaked online. On December 31, facing swirling rumors, the Wuhan government made its first official announcement, confirming 27 cases but, crucially, denying human-to-human transmission. Teams in hazmat suits were finally sent to close down the seafood market, though without explaining much to the befuddled, scared vendors. On January 1, police said they had punished eight medical workers for “rumors,” including a doctor named Li Wenliang, who was among the initial group of whistleblowers."
Zeynep Tufekci, The Atlantic

Aly Song / Reuters

"For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death."
"Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet."
Dr.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general, World Health Organization

"These signs are concerning, and they mean that the window of opportunity for containment, that is for stopping the global spread of the virus is closing."
"The global risk situation is evolving. The window for containment is closing. These signs are worrisome."
"This is something we have to be prepared for [border measures to identify potential cases no longer effective or feasible]."
"We are trying to push past winter respiratory season. That will help a lot. The World Health Organization is telling countries to prepare as if COVID-19 is a pandemic although it has not declared it one."
"We have to prepare in the event of more widespread transmission in our communities."
Chief medical officer Dr.Theresa Tam, Canada

On Monday China reported about 77,362 cases of COVID-19 and 2,618 deaths internally. The coronavirus appears to havce been blunted by China's unprecedented lockdown and restrictions, possibly having averted hundreds of thousands of cases in the epidemic, according to a team of medical experts visiting the epicentre of the outbreak last week. China has in fact, boasted that only in China could such a swift authoritarian step be taken to place 700 million people in a state of quarantine.

In Iran, religious leaders have recommended daily repeating of 7 Islamic suras to successfully ward off contamination of the virus, even while political leaders in the country have been assuring Iranians that the country foresees no epidemic in its future. Aside from which the holy Islam Shiite city of Qom was reputedly placed in lockdown, and the country's deputy minister of health was seen to be in extremis on a public platform of reassurance. The following day it was revealed he had contracted the novel coronavirus.

Teams are disinfecting public spaces in Qom, including the shrine of Hazrat Masumeh   AFP

Afghanistan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported their first cases of the coronavirus, while in Italy six people have died while the cases in the country leaped to over 200. There are 763 cases identified in South Korea, 605 transmitted within the country, where seven people had died by Monday morning, to Iran's eight deaths. In South Korea the first medical 'red alert' since the 2009 H1N1 swine flu epidemic was declared.

All flights to and from South Korea, Thailand and Italy have been suspended by Kuwait's civil aviation authority. The government of Canada has asked travellers returning from abroad no matter where they had travelled, to monitor themselves for symptoms of COVID-19 for a two-week self-quarantine period. The 7th case of the virus has been confirmed in British Columbia. Canada's cases of coronavirus now total eleven as Ontario announced its fourth case.

Cases have emerged for the first time in countries such as Austria following the Italian outbreak   AFP

According to Dr.Michael J. Ryan, WHO executive director, it is not yet possible to know whether COVID-19 will be contained in due time, or develop into a full-blown global pandemic, or even become a seasonal pattern of transmission somewhat like the flu. Countries must however, prepare for the worst. "We believe that all countries are vulnerable. It is time to do everything you would do in preparing for a pandemic."

In translation, it means making preparations to take and treat cases and putting in place appropriate containment measures. Health care systems, warns Dr.Ryan, in even the most developed countries are already strained. And it is the potential for outbreaks in less well developed countries of the world, unable to muster the medical resources available to more economically robust nations, that most concerns the World Health Organization; it is how that issue develops that will determine when and whether a global pandemic will be called. Listed below, countries where cases of coronavirus have been discovered.

• Afghanistan
• Australia
• Bahrain
• Belgium
• Cambodia
• Canada
• China (mainland)
• Egypt
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Hong Kong
• India
• Iran
• Iraq
• Israel
• Italy
• Japan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Macao
• Malaysia
• Nepal
• Philippines
• Russia
• Singapore
• South Korea
• Spain
• Sri Lanka
• Sweden
• Taiwan
• Thailand
• United Arab Emirates
• United Kingdom
• United States of America
• Vietnam