generalspeaking: The Unknowns About the U.K.Variant COVID Strain

Monday, January 25, 2021

The Unknowns About the U.K.Variant COVID Strain

While saying the variant of the coronavirus first detected in the U.K. may be associated with a higher degree of mortality, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it's also putting additional pressure on the nation's health-care system

"There's no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those in hospital. However, when data are looked at in terms of those who've been tested positive -- there is evidence that there's an increased risk for those who have the new variant, compared to the old virus."

"[For a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus], the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die."

"With the new variant, for 1,000 people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die [but]the evidence is not yet strong."
"I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it."
"I don't think this virus is going anywhere. It's going to be around, probably, forever."
Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser, United Kingdom

"To my knowledge, this is the first study that suggests a higher mortality with the B117 variant, while previous data suggested no difference."
"Hence, we remain uncertain whether B117 results in more severe infections."
Dr. Dominik Mertz, infectious disease specialist, McMaster University

The COVID-19 variant first discovered in the U.K. may not just be more contagious, but possibly deadlier as well.

The new English variant of COVID-19, announced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, may prove to be associated with a higher level of mortality. On the positive side, evidence indicates that both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines now being rolled out to vaccinate the British population retain their efficacy even with the new mutant strain."We will have to live with coronavirus in one way or another for a long while to come," he said. "It's an open question [when measures could be eased. At this stage you've got to be very, very cautious indeed."

The health service is being placed under "intense pressure" as a result partially of the impact of the new variant, known to be more transmissible than the original, stressed the prime minister. "We may need to go further to protect our borders." And according to Britain's chief scientific adviser, evidence on mortality levels was "not yet strong", from a "series of different bits of information", while great uncertainty remains with respect to the veracity of the data.

For those who become infected, said Dr.Vallance, and reached hospital, no greater risk in the mortality levels are contemplated, yet signs were that people who contracted the U.K. variant were overall at greater risk. Britain had most recently been buoyed by news the numbers of COVID-19 cases was declining, but it had no opportunity to celebrate this news before other news arose warning of the higher risk of death from the new variant identified late last year in the country.

Friday's published data indicated that Britain's vaccination campaign is proceeding successfully, with 5.38 million people having their first dose of one of the two available vaccines, and 409,855 having been vaccinated in the last day alone, a record high, moving speedily apace. The health ministry estimates the number of new infections was being diminished by between one and four percent daily, belying the impression growing by up to five percent.

The turnaround in infectious case numbers inspired hope the spread of the virus was in the process of being curbed, despite caution being urged in reading too much into the figures. Over 3.5 million infections have been recorded in Britain since the start of the pandemic, resulting in close to 96,000 deaths,the fifth-largest death toll from the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19 worldwide. On the other hand, Dr.Vallance noted that scientists are concerned the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa could be more resistant to vaccines, though more research is required there as well.