Russia: No nuclear-free status for the Baltic

"Russia has earlier indicated that it is placing for example these S-400 anti-aircraft missiles in the Kola Peninsula, and it has earlier said it’s placing these missiles in Crimea."

"This is normal practice. Russia is using these systems to replace the older S-300 rockets."

"The reporting was a bit surprising. There was a tinge of foreign policy in the Moscow Times piece that cited President Putin’s comments on (potential Finnish membership of) NATO."

"The positioning of S-400 Triumf missiles near Saint Petersburg is evidence that Saint Petersburg is an important metropolis for Russia."

Finnish Defence Minister Jussi Niinistö

Russian Iskander-M missile launcher on display during Victory Day parade Photograph:( AFP

 A convoy is shown on a video  obtained by Reuters, comprised of over a dozen military vehicles, some thought to be carrying Iskander missiles en route to Vyborg, a Russian city adjacent the border with Finland.The deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev -- a close colleague of Vladimir Putin who once played musical chairs with Putin, occupying the presidency while the prime ministership was temporarily taken by Putin in a bid to return to the presidency legally under the Russian constitution which he later manipulated to make it legal for him to continue as President -- warned should Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would undertake to move nuclear weapons closer to the two countries whose move to join NATO the Kremlin viewed as threatening.

 

"There can be no more talk of our nuclear-free status for the Baltic", he remarked on April 14.

Traditionally neutral, Finland and Sweden decided to break with that Cold War convention, in favour of defending themselves against a neighbour whose moves of aggression could be anticipated on the basis of the example before the eyes of the world, where Ukraine is now in active conflict forced upon it by Moscow's 'special military operation'. Neither Finland nor Sweden have any aspirations to test their own military's mettle facing off against a potential Russian invasion without an additional bit of defence; the combined strength of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

This represents somewhat of a miscalculation on the part of Vladimir Putin, consumed with rage over NATO expansion within the Russian Federation's 'near abroad', taunting Moscow as it were, with its too-close-for-comfort presence. An already-suspicious Putin arrived to a state of paranoia, a state which possibly inured him to the kind of introspection that might have warned him that he would be risking a great deal by launching into a conflict with Ukraine whose reaction to being occupied on a larger scale than the Donbas was obviously underestimated.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via teleconference on May 17.   EPA

 

The scenario that Mr. Putin envisioned and was intent on forestalling, was in fact accelerated by his very actions in bringing war to Ukraine with its burden of civilian and military deaths, destroyed cities, millions of displaced homeless and refugees and Russia's own massive losses in dead commanders as well as servicemen, and the destruction of war machines resulting from Ukrainian defence and bold counter-attacks. The missiles were reportedly parked inside Russia's borders next to Ukraine before the February24 invasion before the decision was made to move them at this juncture.

Now that NATO acceptance of Finland and Sweden is assured, Mr. Putin finds it useful to move the nuclear-capable-warhead missiles to locations close to its borders with Finland. Finland appears to be calmly assessing the situation, finding nothing too much out of the ordinary by the move taken by its mercurial neighbour. And taking it all in stride as far as its reaction can be seen and analyzed by the outside world looking in. What is being discussed and analyzed within Finland in the security of government and military chambers may be another story.

S-400 Triump is an anti-aircraft weapon system. Photo: mil.ru

 

From NATO's perspective, the organization stands to gain by taking Finland and Sweden under its protective wing in the sense that they would become instant "net contributors" to European security. The two countries' absorption into the group would simplify defence of NATO's Baltic members, increasing the alliance's borders with Russia with the addition of 1,900 kilometers representing the border between Russia and Finland.

Turkey, which has long since become a liability politically within NATO, balanced against the immense size of its military, is the fly in the ointment with Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to weigh in against their accession. The Nordic countries, demands Ankara, must stop its support for Kurdish militant groups on their soil. Their bans on arms sales to Turkey must also be lifted. This, from a NATO member-country which contracted the purchase of Russian weapons for its military, disrupting the interoperability of NATO member groups' military hardware.