Friday, November 11, 2022

Russia in Retreat?

"I agree with your conclusions and proposals. For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a priority. We must also take into account the threats to the civilian population."
"Proceed with the withdrawal of troops and take all measures to ensure the safe transfer of personnel, weapons and equipment across the Dnipro River."
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu .. to General Sergei Surovikin
 
"We will save the lives of our soldiers and fighting capacity of our units"
"Keeping them on the right [western] bank is futile."
"Some of them can be used on other fronts."
General Sergei Surovikin, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine
 
"Apparently, we will leave the city no matter how painful it is to write about it now":
"In simple terms, Kherson can't be held with bare hands."
"Yes, this is a black page in the history of the Russian army. Of the Russian state. A tragic page,"
War Games Blog 
An old woman walks in the Kherson region Much of the Kherson region has been in Russian control since the early weeks of its invasion.
An old woman walks in the Kherson region Much of the Kherson region has been in Russian control since the early weeks of its invasion.   Getty Images
"They won't let me die in peace. I want to be able to die in peace at the end of my life."
"I have already survived one war. What will happen with the young people? I am done with my life. But they have to carry on."
Mariia Lyrvynova, 92, Kherson
The slow, steady and powerfully effective advance of the Ukrainian military forces in their counteroffensive operations are taking their toll on the mighty Russian army. Who might have foreseen it? Certainly not the Kremlin when the 'special military operation' swung into force, and early in the occupation Kherson was the first (and only) major Ukrainian city to fall under occupation. Plans to carry on and occupy Kyiv didn't work quite so well, sending Russian troops in disarray, withdrawing to focus instead on Ukraine's southeast where the Donbas was to be secured.
 
Putin speaks at the ceremony in Moscow on Friday.
Putin speaks at the ceremony in Moscow annexing four regions of Ukraine to Russia in defiance of international law . Photograph: Getty Images
 
And not long afterward, Russian President Vladimir Putin grandly declared four regions including Kherson were incorporated into Russia "forever", placing Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk under 'accession treaties', to be part of the expanding Russian Federation's geography forever. At the same time the four were placed under Moscow's 'nuclear umbrella', and any attempts from any source to interfere in Russia's new areas of sovereign rule would risk a limited nuclear war.

Now, suddenly, Mr. Putin and his Defence Minister and the general now in charge of the mission to save Ukraine from itself are concerned over the danger to civilians -- when the eight-month conflict has already killed an estimated 40,000 civilians in Ukraine, not to mention the deaths in conflict of 100,000 Russian servicemen and a like number of Ukrainian military personnel. Such sanctimonious humanity! An obvious subterfuge hoping to mask the real chagrin over Russia's failed strategy in Ukraine.
 
General Surovikin never hesitated in his mission of aerial bombardments in Syria alongside the regime's massive attacks against its Syrian Sunni demographic rebelling against their servitude to an Alawite Shiite government that persecuted and terrorized Syria's Sunnis. His statements of concern over the welfare of Russian soldiers and the region's population in Kherson has the ring of propagandistic histrionics. For Russian citizens to feel comforted in the withdrawal announcement, all in the interests of protecting Russian servicemen and civilians.
 
The man that Moscow appointed  to oversee the region, Kirill Stremousov was reviled as a collaborator and traitor by Ukraine. One of the most prominent figures of the Russian occupation. He denounced in a video Ukrainian 'Nazis", claiming the Russian military to be in 'full control' of the situation in the south. Then hours later he was suddenly involved in a car accident according to Moscow, an 'accident' that managed to killed the man on Wednesday.
 
A span of the Darivka bridge on the main highway east out of Kherson had collapsed into the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro. Ukrainians, posting photographs of the destroyed bridge speculated that Russian troops blew the bridge up preparatory to a retreat. Not so Vitaly Kim, the Ukrainian governor of the Mykolaiv region bordering Kherson whose suggestion was that Ukrainian forces had pushed out the Russians.:"Russian troops are complaining that they have already been thrown out of there", he stated on his Telegram channel. Russia's war bloggers described the pullout as a bitter blow.  
 
Vladimir Putin speaks to crowds in Moscow, with the words "Together forever" at the top of the screen.
Vladimir Putin celebrated his annexation of occupied regions but his forces were already on the back foot in Kherson   Getty Images
"[Kyiv was moving] very carefully [following the Kremlin's announcement]."  
"The enemy does not give us gifts, does not make 'goodwill gestures', we win it all."  
"Therefore, we are moving very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk, in the interests of liberating all our land and so that the losses are as small as possible."   
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskii

There are concerns expressed by Ukraine and by outside intelligence sources that the Russian military has planned some special 'surprises' for incoming Ukrainian troops meaning to secure Kherson. Land mines in place, perhaps a dam upriver destroyed to flood the city. There is no power, no heating, no internet service in Kherson. Gas stations have no fuel. There is no medication for cancer and diabetes patients. The local television centre was blown up by departing Russian troops. Cellphone towers and energy infrastructure were destroyed.

Humanitarian aid is distributed in Balakliya following the retreat of Russian troops from Ukraine's Kharkiv region, on Sept. 11. Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

     

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