Ukraine Holding Its Own, Russia Offended at Ukrainian 'Terrorism'

"[he situation in the Bakhmut area] is getting more and more difficult.”

“The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense."

"[Those defending Bakhmut — a city that Ukraine has repeatedly described as] our fortress [due to it being heavily fortified — and the surrounding area are] real heroes [and that Kyiv was trying to ensure its forces have as many weapons as possible there]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

 

“That’s pretty unrealistic an assessment [but] unfortunately, I do agree with Zelenskyy that the situation in Bakhmut is getting more and more difficult.” 

“Maliar is also pointing to the fact that the ammunition artillery fire coming from the Russians is just quantitatively much larger than what the Ukrainians can pay it back with."

“So even with NATO bringing in more ammunition and bringing in Leopard tanks and many other things into the battle lines, it is just too hard for the Ukrainians quantitatively to equal what the Russians are firing."

“That being said, I don’t think that the Russians are going to have a swift victory in Bakhmut, I think the Ukrainians can hold out for quite a while. The Ukrainians launched a counteroffensive of sorts at the weekend that was ultimately rolled back but the point is, they did gain a little bit of momentum and traction."

Samuel Ramani, geopolitical analyst and associate fellow, Royal United Services Institute

Ukrainians watching a movie on TV at a humanitarian aid center in Bakhmut on Feb. 27, 2023 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Dimitar Dilkoff | Afp | Getty Images

Oleksandr Syrskyi, top commander in charge of Ukraine's ground forces, spoke of the fighting in
Bakhmut as "very tense". Some of the best-trained assault units from the Wagner mercenary group were assigned by the Kremlin to break through Ukrainian defensive lines to encircle Bakhmut, irrespective of losses. And there have been huge losses of fighters in the Wagner group. Their deaths don't seem to concern Russia, however. Leader of the group, while not particularly fazed by the deaths is aggravated at the capacity of Ukrainian servicemen to endure and hold off his forces.

Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused the Russian military elite of deliberately holding back on the weapons available to his group, a bitter accusation of non-cooperation which he likely attributes to the fact that the regular military has been no more successful in routing and overcoming the Ukrainian resistance than has his group over the months of fighting. Moscow has been firm in its intention to intensify its eastern front campaign.

President Zelenskyy had declared a month ago that Kyiv had no intention of surrendering Bakhmut to Moscow. Three weeks on he declared his forces would not be holding the city "at any cost and with everyone dying". The high-intensity battle for possession of the city, now a ruined hulk of destruction, began in August. Which represents one of the longest sustained campaigns for any single town since the Russian invasion began a year earlier.

A view of damage after attacks as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Bakhmut, Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2023.   Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Videos published by the Ukrainian military are that of a landscape of burned buildings, the city's random remaining occupants gathering snow to be melted for drinking water. The city's original population of 70,000 before the invasion has plummeted to less than 6,000. Most civilians fled while they still could. Bakhmut is not a significant logistics hub, its seizure by Russian forces offers scant strategic advantage, so holding the city is more symbolic than a useful conquest.

According to a senior official who remains anonymous Ukraine will plan to gather resources for a spring counteroffensive in the south. To obtain that objective, according to European officials, Ukraine may be forced to surrender Bakhmut and task its defenders with other objectives. Some of the war's highest casualty rates have occurred in the area. reflecting Bakhmut's high-profile symbolic importance to both invader and defender.

The capture of Bakhmut would aid Russia's plans to occupy the entire Donbas region, already declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin part of Russia. That, in addition to his claims on the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions would move him closer to occupying the entire three provinces over and above his premature showpiece declaration months earlier allotting the Ukrainian territory they represent to Russia. Putin is big on annexing Ukrainian sovereign territory.

The Wagner group represents the most effective fighting element of Russia's Donbas offensive. The group's chief's biter power struggle with the formal command of the Russian armed forces represents a weak link in their purported common purpose. Where conventional Russian methods of bringing in raw new conscripts to die on the front line is the official strategy, Wagner has enlisted prison convicts inexperienced in warfare in exchange for criminal conviction exoneration.

Ukraine's strength may lie in its goal to weaken Russian forces in urban combat. At the same time maintaining fresh reserves sufficient to launch a counteroffensive in the spring. Newly arrived heavy weapons including the greately-desired Leopard tanks fro, the West would give much-needed added impetus to the prospect of pushing the Russian military back to the border in a repeat of earlier successes.

Matters are not altogether bleak for Ukraine. It has exercised surprise strategies of great success throughout the conflict that have taken Russia off guard; the latest being a number of drones attacking inside Russian borders. One had crashed a mere 100 km from Moscow, alarming the Kremlin. Authorities closed the airspace over St.Petersburg in response to another drone. And Vladimir Putin has risibly accused Ukraine of 'terrorism'.

 

A still image taken from video released by founder of Russia's Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin's press service, shows what it said to be Wagner fighters standing with a flag on top of a building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, in this still image taken from video released March 2, 2023. Press service of "Concord"/Handout via REUTERS