Sunday, December 08, 2024

Russian Security Guarantees

"In conditions of unprecedented external pressure, Russia and Belarus closely interact in international affairs, invariably providing each other with genuine allied mutual support."
"It was they (the West) who caused today's tragedy [in Ukraine] and continue to exacerbate it. Such irresponsible policies are pushing the world to the brink of global conflict."
"It [mutual security guarantee] defines mutual allied obligations to ensure defense, protect the sovereignty, independence, and constitutional order of Russia and Belarus, as well as the integrity and inviolability of the territory and external border of the Union State, with the use of all available forces and means."
"This includes Russian tactical nuclear weapons, located on the territory of the Republic of Belarus at the suggestion of the President of Belarus."
"I am certain that this treaty will reliably protect the security of Russia and Belarus, and consequently create conditions for the continued peaceful and sustainable development of our two nations."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
 
"I would like to publicly ask you to deploy new weapons systems, primarily Oreshnik, to Belarus. It will help calm some heads."
"We have specific locations where we can deploy these weapons. With one condition: the targets for these weapons must be determined by Belarus's military-political leadership."
"With the signing of ... the interstate treaty on security guarantees today, we are reaching an unprecedented level of strategic cooperation and military coordination."
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko
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Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pose for a photo prior to a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Russia-Belarus Union State marking the 25th anniversary of the Union State Treaty in Minsk, Belarus, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (Grigory Sysoyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
 
At a meeting of the Supreme State Council Friday where Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Belarus to sign a treaty of security guarantees between Russia and Belarus, Moscow offered its closest ally the possible use of Russian nuclear weapons. This, ostensibly to 'help repel an aggression'. The publication of a revised version of Russia's nuclear doctrine predated the signing of the document. Moscow has now generously placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella, coinciding with tensions between the Kremlin and the West, related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Mr. Putin emphasized, speaking alongside President Alexander Lukashenko that the new document comes along with the potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons previously deployed to Belarus, responding to an 'aggression'. Presumably that 'aggression' is the Ukrainian military's orders from Kyiv to use all means possible in meeting Russian aggression with a strong counteroffensive, including the use of medium-range missiles directly into Russian territory which has enraged Moscow to shower the interior of Ukraine with barrages of drones and missiles.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko take part in a signing ceremony following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in Minsk, Belarus December 6, 2024. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
 
"I'm sure that the treaty will ensure the security of Russia and Belarus", Putin purred. Once the security pact was signed, Putin's partner in mutual defense Lukashenko, pursued the matter of deploying more advanced weaponry to Belarus, notably with the inclusion of the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile, a costly piece of new high-tech weaponry used last month against Ukraine for the first time in a display of hypersonic power whose impact on the human body is formidable.

In response to the request, Putin assured Lukashenko that in the second half of next year, his partner in Belarus could depend on the deployment of Oreshnik missiles, to remain under Russian control,while allowing Belarus to select its preferred targets. The November 21 strike with such weapons on Ukraine was presented as a response to Ukrainian strikes in the Bryansk and Kursk regions on Russian military facilities, with Western-supplied weapons.

Warning that Russia could make use of the new missiles to counter-strike military facilities of Western allies of Ukraine whose permission to Ukraine for the use of their weapons for attacks on Russian territory essentially brought them into the orbit of Russian payback. These are the weapons which Putin claims cannot be intercepted; that their destructive power is comparable to nuclear weapons, even fitted with conventional warheads.

Claims that some weaponry experts in the West doubt. The novel feature of the Oreshnik, opined the experts, is that the missile carries multiple warheads capable of simultaneously striking different targets; a facility generally associated with longer-range intercontinental ballistic missiles. Further, that Russia had at one point in developing the new weapon based on a system Russian weapons developers had discontinued.
 
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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko asks his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to deploy new weapons systems in Belarus, including Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile  Anadolu Ajansi

"Putin's visit to Minsk isn't about security, it's about Russia tightening control over our country."
"The deployment of new weapons and using Belarus as a pawn in his imperial ambitions threatens us all." 
Svietlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader-in-exile
"... since we have today signed an agreement on security guarantees using all available forces and means, I consider the deployment of such systems as the Oreshnik on the territory of the Republic of Belarus to be feasible."
"I think this will become possible in the second half of next year, as serial production of these systems in Russia increases and as these missile systems enter service with the Russian strategic forces."  
Russian President Vladimir Putin

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