Mutual Assured Destruction -- Drone Warfare

"On the battlefield I did not see a single Ukrainian soldier. Only drones."

"I saw them [Ukrainian soldiers] only when I surrendered. "

"Only drones, and there are lots and lots of them."

"Guys, don’t come. It’s a drone war."

Surrendered Russian soldier

 

"The rapid evolution in AI-enabled warfare has driven both sides into a struggle for control, with each country attempting to counter the other’s aerial assets."

"Last year, Analytics Vidhya described Ukraine as a “goldmine” for AI warfare tech, and the stakes have only intensified as Ukraine pushes for AI mastery."

"This push is impacting global security dialogues, as military strategists examine what it would mean to dominate the AI-powered “hive mind” of war machines.                                                                                                                           David Kirichenko, Lawfare

Photo: Anton Petrus/GETTY IMAGES

 In the Ukraine conflict, drones now inflict an estimated 70 percent of all Russian and Ukrainian casualties according to Roman Kostenko, chair of the defense and intelligence committee in Ukraine's Parliament. They cause even more casualties -- up to 80 percent of deaths and injuries in some battles, according to commanders. No one might have envisioned this three years earlier when Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to storm into Ukraine.

 

Over a million soldiers have been killed or wounded since Russia's 'special military operation' launched the three-year-old war that has been setting Europe on edge at the Russian Federation's obvious eye for its revanchist territorial aggression. Drones now cause the death of more soldiers, and destroy greater numbers of armored vehicles in Ukraine than have all traditional weapons combined, according to Ukrainian officials.

 

Frontline trenches remain essential for defense, but in this war most soldiers die or lose their limbs to explosives, many of which are modified hobby models. From the security of bunkers or hidden behind tree lines drone pilots attack the enemy with joysticks and video screens, safe kilometers from the actual fighting. It has become too dangerous for jeeps, armored personnel carriers or tanks to travel through drone-infested territory, leaving soldiers to hike for kilometers ducking for cover to reach their destinations. 

 

A U.S. Marine with Black Sea Rotational Force 17.1 launches an unmanned aerial vehicle during exercise Sea Breeze 2017 in Mykolayivka. (Photo: CNE-CNA/Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/cne-cna-c6f/35323529193/, Public Domain)

Relations that have evolved between Ukraine and the Trump administration are a marked threat to future aid to the embattled country from its heretofore main source of conventional weaponry. The billions  sent by the United States to Kyiv is history and the future holds little of promise to Ukraine from Washington. 19 Abrams tanks remain of the 31 that the U.S. gave Ukraine in 2023. The remainder were destroyed, disabled or captured, some incapacitated by drones. All others taken away from the front lines.

 

By contrast drones are infinitely cheaper and easier to build. And Ukraine is building them. Their numbers and efficacy helped compensate for the dwindling supplies of Western-produced artillery and missiles sent to Ukraine.  Over a million first-person-view (FPV) drones were produced in Ukraine last year. Both Ukraine and Russia now say they are scaling up production; each planning to produce three to four million drones in 2025.

 

The Ukrainian military reports huge increases in drone attacks by Russian forces, while Ukraine follows suit, firing more drones in the last year than the most common form of large-caliber artillery shells. Colonel Vadym Sukharevsky, commander of Ukraine's drone force, reveals that Ukraine is now pursuing a "robots first" military strategy.

 

Effective as they may be, drones fail to meet all of Ukraine's war requirements. Heavy artillery and other long-range weapons remain essential for many reasons, including the protection of troops and the targeting of command outposts or air-defense systems. Yet the very nature of warfare itself sees the emerging dominance of drones.

 

Ukraine Symposium – The Continuing Autonomous Arms Race   Articles of War

 

"The war is a mix of World War I and World War III -- what could be a future war", stated Admiral Pierre Vandier of France, NATO's supreme allied commander for transformation. A joint training center with Ukrainian soldiers to develop new warfighting strategies with artificial intelligence, advanced analytics and other machine-leaning systems, has been opened by NATO in the face of the viability of weapons costing millions on a battlefield, readily destroyed by drones that cost several hundred dollars.

 

"Drones show that the one who is quicker to adapt wins the war", said Lieutenant Volodymyr Dehtyaryov, brigade spokesperson, as soldiers are kept at a distance, operating from a bunker behind the front line while Russian forces attempt to destroy remote-controlled vehicles with mortars and dropping explosives from their own drones following the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine carrying out the first fully robotic combined arms assault in combat. 

Atlantic Council