Next Move?
Iran certainly has friends and allies. Hugo Chavez comes to mind. Ah yes, of course, also Iraq and Afghanistan think of Iran as a kindly benefactor. Syria and some political elements in Lebanon think the world of Iran and its irascibly-insane Amadinejad.Venezuela and Syria have their reasons; the former subscribes to the old adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and the latter sees Iran as a generous patron. But Iraq, with whom Iran fought a deadly war, sacrificing a generation on both sides? And Afghanistan whom fundamentalists have already done their best to destroy?
It's a strange world of peculiar alliances, but the reasoning behind them is not always opaque. It's just that while Afghanistan and Iraq are mewling over the generosity and concern of Iran, both are highly dependent upon the good auspices and kindly intent of other countries' sacrifices on their behalf, like NATO-affiliated countries in Afghanistan and the United States and 'the coalition of the willing' in Iraq; mostly Britain, but a sprinkling of others.
All of whom have suffered grave casualties and the unfortunate deaths of members of their dedicated armed forces on behalf of the countries dependent on them for securing stability.
A stability that is in constant flux and in danger of tipping beyond convalescence into utter chaos, thanks to the mischievous undercover work of Iran's administration and most specifically its Revolutionary Guard members, charged with the vital task of training and arming Shi'ite terrorists in Iraq to combat the Sunni terrorists flooding over the borders with Syria and Jordan through Saudi Arabia and other allied points.
And in Afghanistan finding common cause with al-Qaeda and the ever-resurgent Taliban.
Oh well, that's merely a description of business as usual in that particular geography. Yet there's a possibility there may be change in the near future, where Iran will make more of an effort to straighten out its priorities and restore international relations, finally ousting its increasingly unpopular president.
Iranians, it would seem, are tired of their isolation, of the state of their depressed economy and lack of opportunities for advancement, let alone the cranky stamping out of their freedom of expression and association. Despite the official stance on all things Western, young Iranians are vocal and physical in their devotion to Western music, films and fashion.
Iran has been in a state of economic stagnation for decades; it staggers under a 20% unemployment rate, with almost a million young people entering the inelastic job market every year. Despite their oil riches the Islamic Republic is forced to impose gas rationing. Their old and inadequate refineries simply aren't capable of producing sufficient fuel to meet domestic needs.
Foreign investment is absent and aside from partner-in-adversity, Russia, expert assistance is not available to Iran from other, potentially helpful sources. Instead of reaching out to the international community, Iran has been busy pushing it away, making enemies and perplexing others by its insistence on nuclear sufficiency in a depressed economy.
Also making it clear that its ambitions extend toward nuclear weaponry, and with deliberately deleterious intent toward one of its neighbours.
Good way to lose friends and create a whole coterie of enemies. Enjoying the attention and support of like-minded international pariahs, however.
And domestically the noose keeps tightening on dissent, with arrests and incarcerations. With the closing of news sources critical of the Islamist regime. With the increasing use of the death penalty to solve social ills such as murder, rape, armed robbery, apostasy, blasphemy, drug trafficking, sodomy, adultery, prostitution and treason.
Of those offences against Iranian society and fundamentalist shariah law, one wonders how the state can point the finger of guilt at individuals who murder, when it has taken upon itself the position that it fully intends to obliterate an entire country from the area through the use of a nuclear device. If they say it they mean it.
As for the assaults against societal values of sodomy; it's a direct targeting of homosexuals and lesbians. One of the newspapers just shut down lost its privilege to publish for the sin of interviewing a lesbian Iranian living abroad. Adultery and prostitution are forbidden, but multiple wives are not. A Muslim deciding in good faith to become a Christian becomes, ipso facto, an apostate and is therefore also subject to the death penalty.
Dissension, public rallies, and protests critical of the regime fall into the death-penalty-deserving category of treason.
Public executions have become a 'normal' state activity, where a loudspeaker blasts out its bleak message forewarning others: "Death to hypocrites! Death to the terrorists! Death to America!" in a parody of justice. For Islamists, above all, are not to be confused with hypocrites.
And instilling state-imposed terror in the hearts and minds of Iranians is not to be confused with terrorism. And threatening another country with destruction is simply the natural order of things in the Middle East.
Labels: Conflict, Political Realities, Viewpoint
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, August 12, 2007
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