generalspeaking

Building Bridges to Detente

Those were the good old days, when Israel feared the intentions of Iraq's Saddam Hussein who, with his missiles threatened the very existence of the Jewish State. When, during the Iran-Iraq war, Israel was giving assistance to Iran, shipping off armaments to assist the Islamic Republic against their mortal enemy. That was then, this is now. The two uneasy entities with the ancient shared history are now far from partnership in anything but bitter antagonism, fear and tribulation.

But Iran is more than prepared to deal with the storied might of puny Israel, knowing quite well there is no substance behind the myth of military superiority. Or so they boast unendingly. They have witnessed Egypt's unnecessary capitulation to peace with their historical enemy in the interests of a simmering distant distrust, and will have no part of it. The Zionist entity has, by its very presence on sacred Islamic territory, insulted the Prophet (blessed be his name) and He whom he served.

"If this (an Israeli attack) happens, which of course, we do not foresee, its ultimate result would be to expedite the last breath of the Zionist regime", exulted Ahmad Vahidi, the Iranian minister of defence. Those recently dispatched missiles have given Iran's Republican Guard reason to puff with pride and promise success in conquest. A domino effect; first Israel, then the rest of the prideful, sinful, un-Islamic Middle East. Hamas and Hezbollah await instructions. And from there, who knows?

Quail before their might, world.

Israel, suddenly, has removed from the immediate agenda the possibility of mounting an attack against Iranian nuclear installations. At the moment, the trajectory of events wherein revelations of the presence of another nuclear plant near holy Qom - of a size to produce enriched uranium - enraging a world unwilling to admit Iran into the elite nuclear club, determined to effect wounding sanctions - looks attractive for its potential.

The wealthy nations of the world, needful of energy sources wherever and whatever, are not anxious to have Iran cut off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That would be unfortunate, most inconvenient; a most effective deterrence in and of itself. That is, toward the plans of the Security Council. On the other hand, the Security Council may be prepared to gamble, to finally agree on investment cut-off in the country's oil and gas industry.

Which would, of course, injure the population of Iran far more than it would the ruling supreme council of ayatollahs. The income of the Revolutionary Guard would be impacted slightly and that would be useful, but only marginally. The authority of the Supreme Leader and his useful political henchman might or might not be impacted; never can tell what even a dissatisfied public will do when they perceive their country to be imperilled.

It does not appear likely, despite the emerging possibility that both Russia and China, both with their immense investments of time, expertise and financing in Iran, will be brought to bear in incentivizing Iran toward civility toward its neighbours, let alone the international community. Sadly, Israel and Iran, two ancient civilizations, with some shared history, will remain at bitter loggerheads until a change of regime in the latter.

At which time - should there come such a time - the problem of dealing with the power and influence and conquering aspirations of the Revolutionary Guard will be the problem of the new Iranian administration, one might imagine. Might secular chauvinism equal the fanaticism of religious chauvinism?

Labels: Israel, Middle East, United Nations

posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, September 29, 2009