generalspeaking

The New World Order

It seemed possible, at the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the-then perceived amelioration of world tension over nuclear Armageddon, that life on Earth would become more tranquil, less fraught with imminent danger over a final clash that would bring the world toward a permanent night of nuclear blight. There were some lingering fears over the safety of disposal or protection of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, particularly on sites that no longer 'belonged' within the sphere of influence of Russia.

But all of that receded, and more or less looked after itself, with a few blips here and there, with the dismantling of nuclear installations, and the mysterious disappearances of some elements of same, along with missing enriched uranium, and Russian nuclear scientists who looked elsewhere for their futures. And suddenly the world became a different place than that immediately following the collapse of a two-super-power reality. There was a sole eminent power with great political and social clout.

There were a few problems, to be certain. Two neighbouring countries, both of which possessed nuclear armaments, facing off against one another. India a huge democracy with people of many languages, religions, cultures, trying to balance its growing influence as an overburdened country emerging into its future. And Pakistan, volatile with distrust and hatred toward India, eager to wrest Kashmir from Indian control, traditionally urging militants to attack its neighbour.

North Korea, hostile to its South Korean sibling-country, Burma, Venezuela, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, all present as threats to world stability. The brief quiescent period and the hope that went with it after the implosion of the U.S.S.R. morphed from honeymoon into nightmare. Even stable countries in Africa and the Middle East facing serious water shortages leading to drought leading directly to food shortages speak of generalized and particular world problems.

There has been the re-emergence of a stronger Russia, one which has stepped back into its historical stance as world strongman, with Vladimir Putin resurrecting the country's reputation through a kinder look at Joseph Stalin and the enforced hegemonic dependency of its subsumed neighbours. Economic stability through oil brought Russia swaggering back to the world stage, threatening recalcitrant former allies far more eager to leave history than to rejoin Russia.

A fundamentalist Islamist Republic of Iran has its economic, scientific-technological and practical support from Russia, even while Iran instills fear and loathing in other parts of the world, unwilling to support the very thought that an intransigently dangerous and threatening Islamist Republic will gain possession of nuclear weaponry. The additional protective political clout of China on the Security Council ensures Iran remains protected from accountability.

Shrinking economies of the developed world, though of temporary duration, will leave those countries after recovery, with huge debts and unbalanced deficits, particularly the United States. Which embarked on an ill-thought-out invasion that cost its treasury an immense fortune to prosecute with little prospect of relief on the horizon. Exacerbated to a huge degree by its free-wheeling and debased financial system. Thanks to a globalized economy that brought the world economy to its knees.

As American enterprise and production sought to widen its profits by cheaper production methods it left Americans unemployed and servant to a service economy. One which delighted in buying cheap, and ended up importing all the products it had once produced, from China. Deeper in debt and depending on China to finance its expenditures and its imports and its purchases. There is little doubt this is a temporary plight; that American enterprise and tradition will prevail and bring it back to solvency.

China has done very well for itself. And is as self-assured now on the world stage as it might ever be. It's feeling pretty good about itself. It shares much with its client-states like Burma, North Korea, Venezuela, Sudan, Iran, Cuba particularly in human rights lapses and abuses. But moral and ethical issues aside, practicality lets us know that the U.S.'s position has been greatly altered in the world economy; its share of the GDP fell by 32% even as China's rose by 144%.

And with the rise of China as a fast-emerging world powerhouse in production and export, it has company, with India and Brazil bringing up the rear. Changing the balance of political and financial power in the world. As the influence and wealth of the West declines, the confidence, growing finances and political sway of the East increases. In all of this there is the complication of climate change bringing food scarcity, and floods resulting in mass migrations.

The stable period the world enjoyed a mere several decades earlier has confounded expectations by remorselessly transforming itself into a confused, unstable world order where fanatical religionists preying on the world of infidels, criminal networks dealing in drugs, weapons, slavery, and giant corporations wreak their havoc. Not a very pretty picture.

Labels: Economy, Environment, Political Realities, World Crises

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, December 26, 2009