Sunday, April 25, 2010

Bleeding Nuclear Scientists

Well, how about that? A potential problem-solver! If enough Iranian nuclear scientists decide they would prefer to decamp rather than hang around to witness first-hand a showdown that no one in their right mind would care to be personally involved with, perhaps this might present as a solution to Iran's ongoing nose-thumbing at the rest of the world.

So, all right, not all of the rest of the world. Iran does have its defenders and its cronies, generally those rogue states which behave as Iran does, and which generally prefer their societies raw, starving, and under political oppression. There's always North Korea and its helpful attitudes, and of course Syria, yet another nuclear-ambitious threat.

And then, take Zimbabwe, for example, that now-indigent African state has found an ally in Iran. The new bedfellows are exchanging natural resources. For Zimbabwe, Iranian oil; for Iran, Zimbabwean uranium. One must perforce enquire: does Zimbabwe have the means by which that raw oil product can be made useful through the expedient of refining? Doubt it. And does Iran have the capability of speedily enriching the tonnes of uranium it anticipates?

As for defecting Iranian scientists, there have been a few, and perhaps this kind of hopeful opportunism will begin to bear fruit. Encouraging others to do likewise, to throw themselves into the welcoming arms of Iran's opponents, abandoning the country along with its nefarious nuclear plans. Last month a well-known Iranian nuclear physicist was re-settled in the U.S.

The CIA is delighted to be able to have friendly conversations with Shahram Amiri. And now, news of perhaps yet another Iranian scientist succumbing to doubts about his country. The Druze-community Member of the Knesset, Deputy Minister Ayoub Kara (of Israel's Apartheid state) has just released the information that "My office has received a request from an Iranian scientist who is currently staying in a friendly country ...

"I am making an effort to assist in this matter because I believe in helping anyone to remove the strategic and nuclear threat upon the enlightened and democratic world." Deputy Minister Kara added in his statement that it is his knowledge that surrounding Arab countries understand themselves to be in danger by Iranian nuclear ambitions, no less than the danger presented to Israel.

That Iran's appearing focus on Israel creates some slight comfort, readily shed with the understanding that the threat is more wide-spread than simply removing Israel. Tehran's growing confidence that it will face no greater threat than meaningless sanctions from a fearful world bodes ill for the near future. The cockiness of its counter-summit to the American disarmament summit speaks volumes about its self-assurance.

That both China and Russia attended Iran's counter-summit simply makes the entire situation more troubling, albeit hardly more surprising, given their recalcitrance to sign onto pressuring Iran to accede to world opinion and the United Nations and U.S.-led insistence that the Islamic Republic of Iran abstain from its illegal march toward nuclear armament.

Practically speaking, China and Russia are so invested in placating Iran because of the allure of its oil, that even if the impossible did happen, that Iran lost more of its senior nuclear scientists, both China and Russia would move with alacrity to make up the loss by sending over their own experts. That is one facet of the reality of the situation.

The other is how to gain some momentum toward forestalling Iran's end game.

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