Analyzing Catastrophe
Happy days are here again!British Petroleum is now sucking up an estimated 20% of the oil that is gushing from that wound in the Earth's surface, one mile beneath the ocean. Quite the feat. Managing, with the use of cleverly-engineered robots, to manoeuvre a narrow pipe into the gushing oil to collect it in oil tankers, in the Gulf of Mexico. Imagine; a mile-long tube, positioned into the leak.
Siphoning operations are up and away! Of course that does leave 80% of the spill gushing uncontrollably. Pity that.
Engineers figure that an estimated five millions gallons have so far slathered into the sea, sitting in great gobs on the sea floor and up above, in a gigantic oil slick. Thus far, weather conditions have been favourable in keeping the slick from reaching environmentally-sensitive shorelines.
The Deepwater Horizon rig is now world-famous, as is BP, for an abysmal failure of diligence. And although official estimates put the spouting oil at 5,000 barrels a day, an amount that horrifies everyone involved, environmental scientists and mechanical engineers not working for BP beg to differ. Hugely.
"'Leak' is definitely not the right word for this. It's a serious mess. We're looking at somewhere in the range of 45,000 to 84,000 barrels a day" gushing into the ocean from this nasty gash in the Earth's crust. That represents something like fourteen times more of an godawful mess than either the government or BP claims. And that's from an associate prof. of mechanical engineering out of Purdue University.
Columbia's University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory's Timothy Crone's analysis is somewhat broader: "We could be talking about anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels a day", he avers. And Florida State University professor Ian MacDonald estimates some 26,000 barrels of oil spurting out of the destroyed well. But what do they know, they're only the experts.
And BP has grave reservations about their estimates.
The company's chief operating officer feels comfortable in stating, yet again, that a reasonable calculation still represents 5,000 barrels of oil spouting out of the well-that-won't-be-stopped. "What I can tell you is that we're mounting the biggest response ever done and it's not related to whether it's 5,000 barrels a day or a different number. We're applying every single resource possible."
Trouble is, these are all untried methods. The fail-safe mechanism meant to shut down the well failed. Environmental studies were not diligently pursued beforehand. A relief well that could have been put in place and should have been dug, hadn't been. Because the U.S. regulators themselves saw no need to trouble themselves or the oil company over such trifles.
So, minimize or maximize the extent of the gushing pollution that is no practical use to anyone in its current state of unrecovery, this represents a colossal, preventable debacle.
Labels: Environment, Realities, United States
posted by Pieface @ Monday, May 17, 2010
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