generalspeaking

If At First...

If at first success is not met but resistance to what seems to be reasonable is created, then back to the drawing board. The United States is not all that adept at true diplomacy when it deals with countries it feels - and often with good reason - that are dependent upon its largess. On the other hand, if a dependent country has something valuable to barter that the U.S. is anxious to obtain, the carrot can sometimes accomplish more than the stick.

But in the case of Afghanistan it's truly doubtful whether either the carrot or the stick will be truly useful. Afghanistan and its president are like the proverbial mule that no human agency can move. It will move on its own time when it damn well feels like it. And even then, perhaps not. In the case of Hamid Karzai, he has a lot of frying fish on the go. If he feels sufficiently insulted by tense demands of the U.S. he can just toddle along elsewhere.

Knowing full well that Afghanistan is not about to be abandoned to its own devices. It is too important to American interests to allow that to happen. But there is something about that staunch ally of the United States, Afghan president Hamid Karzai. He is committed not to a partnership with the Americans, but to the very fact that he can be resilient about all of that. And still demand plenty of support, and get it.

Billions of the American treasury have gone into attempting to shore up this government, to build its shabby infrastructure into something approximating a state. Canadian funding for schools, court systems, policing, medical clinics too have been expended in that backward and poor country. The international community as a whole has invested heavily there. None of which will guarantee loyalty to a country that knows its geo-political value.

Should Afghanistan fail in its struggle against fanatical fundamentalist Islamism, there will be an echo and re-echo in the geography. The Taliban in Afghanistan have their partner Taliban in Pakistan and the Pakistani Taliban are nicely partnered, along with the Afghan Taliban, with al-Qaeda. And in that comfortable gathering there is still a place, however sectarian peculiar, for Iran.

Count Turkey in, and Syria, and Lebanon, and Iraq, and we've got an entire geography and more, of highly flammable social, political, religious fabric about to explode, its fragments hitting hard up against the fibre of other national interests, reaching far indeed toward communities ensconced within Europe and North America.

Not a very comforting picture. But President Obama has now resorted from berating Mr. Karzai to stroking him kindly with blandishments irresistible beyond refusal. Or so the scenario is envisioned. But isn't it amazing that President Karzai immutable intentions are still on track, yet that he accepts President Obama's new tack, but kindly send cash.

And by the way, agreements and alliances are still on track with the Taliban. Most particularly should it be known that Mr. Karzai is fully in sympathy with most of the Taliban membership who are, after all, only simple Pashtun peasants, needing comfort and assurances which he is fully prepared to deliver.

So stop ... full stop ... ambushing and killing civilian Afghans, and while they're at it, stop targetting simple Pashtun peasants who happen also to be Taliban. Confusing? Not really. Simply reality, Afghan-style.

Labels: Conflict, Security, Terrorism, United States

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, May 12, 2010