generalspeaking

Direct Peace Talks, Israel/PA

Wavering and weaving just as the cool breezes of opportunity and and the over-heated winds of criticism from within his own party present, U.S. President Barack Obama has now declared in a push-and-shove message to PA President Mahmoud Abbas that direct peace talks, as urged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be embarked upon. Again. Indirect talks could yield nothing but diplomatic wrangling at a remove. Direct talks have the potential to lead to substantial improvements in relations ultimately promising success.

On the other hand, direct talks between the Palestinian Authority and the Kadima party head and then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert produced nothing but hedging of bets. At a time when Ehud Olmert was prepared to offer almost anything the PA demanded, and awaited a response to what could only be termed a generous-verging-on-delusional compromise, the Palestinian Authority remained mute. Not surprising, and given the history of the Middle East and its bargaining processes, there is a tendency to push and to shove.

To internally gloat at the strides made in demands, yet it seems inevitable, on the record, that the Arab bargaining agents succumb time and again to the illusion that if so much has been promised them, then why not hold out for more? And each time another barrier is broken through in incremental steps, an internal celebration takes place, pushing aside any potential for reasonable accommodation, as further concessions are demanded without which no agreement can be possible.

So proximity talks are out, and direct talks in again. Although there were rumours during the previous direct talks with the previous Israeli administration that Fatah was jubilant that the IDF entered Gaza to confront Hamas under Operation Cast Lead, that event was used as a pretext to indignantly cease negotiations, placing direct talks into the limbo they're currently in. The truth is, Mahmoud Abbas hardly knows where to turn, what to do. He is under pressure by other Arab governments, particularly Saudi Arabia, not to surrender cheaply.

And then, just like his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, he is exceedingly aware of the radical wing of Fatah refusing any kind of 'accommodation' or 'recognition' of Israel, utterly devoted to their dream of militarily - and with international public opinion on their side - defeating Israel, to recapture land still claimed as 'Palestinian'. Mr. Abbas made the somber trek to the Arab League hoping they might offer him a solution. Their decision was to leave the solution in his hands - but yet to insist that the Saudi plan for peace be implemented.

As Arab League chief Amr Mussa explains, "written guarantees" remain a requirement before direct talks should proceed. Even while President Obama strenuously urges Mr. Abbas to drop all pre-conditions and get down to direct talks with his counterpart (or risk losing financial support). Still, the statement by the Arab League is sufficiently ambiguous to leave Mr. Abbas some wriggle-room, even while he and the League deplore the pressure the U.S. is placing on the PA.

They liked it far better when the Obama administration was leaning on Israel.

And here's a sweet little quote from PA chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, claiming that the Palestinian Authority has offered a proposal to U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell, represented as 'more generous' than was presented to Ehud Olmert. Former Prime Minister Olmert finds that extremely puzzling, since he claims never to have had a counter-offer from the PA through their-then-direct negotiations.

Mr. Olmert speaks painfully of the concessions he was prepared to make for Israel to attain peace with the PA. Of his concern and disappointment that it came to naught. From what has transpired in the past when the adversaries seeking to become peaceful neighbours have spoken of peace and sat down to deliberate compromises on both sides that would ultimately result in a state of peaceful relations and the creation of a Palestinian state such anticipation is fraught with disappointment.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, on the other hand, has raised the ire of both Fatah and Hamas for his eminently practical recommendations. While critical of Israel's West Bank settlements and the influence the settlers have over the Israeli government, he is also a practical man who has made great inroads on paving the way for civic infrastructure for the new Palestinian state. He feels that it is the new Palestinian state that should absorb Palestinian returnees, not Israel. Under his auspices an agreement to carve out majority Arab settlements in Israel and trade them to the PA for majority Jewish settlements in the West Bank could be feasible.

On the other hand, this man faces danger of assassination at the hands of both stridently militant Fatah groups and those of Hamas terror groups. While Mahmoud Abbas hardly knows where to turn, weighed down by the passions that surround him, by the expectations of those prepared to do serious harm to Mr. Fayyad. Business as usual in the Arab world, in other words.

Labels: Israel, Middle East, Peace, Political Realities

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, August 01, 2010