generalspeaking

Amid Deadly Protests

As goes Tunisia there goes...? That's the big question, is it not?

There must be quite a few fairly nervous autocrats, dictators, kings and theocracies out there wondering just how their reigns will be impacted by the drama shaping up in Tunisia. Or, perhaps not. For some, an idle thought, confidence in the blunt force they wield unshakable. In any event, official Tunisia is struggling to find the balance that will allow restless young Tunisians to turn the hot blast of anger back to its usual simmer.

"Perhaps all the Arab governments are monitoring with eyes wide open what is happening in Tunisia. Much of what prevents protest and civil disobedience is simply the psychological barrier. But the psychological barrier is broken." Abdelrahman al-Rashed, Asharq al-Awsat

It is the youth of oppressed populations who simmer with the kind of dissatisfaction which can be turned into action. If that youth has been well educated, finds itself without the opportunities for employment, for furthering aspirations, for fully engaging with society, for the forward-looking expression of a confident future, the formula for violent dissent is born.

Not, perhaps, in Egypt, traditionally plagued with poverty, ignorance and lack of opportunity where the Muslim Brotherhood seeks to implement its own rule, no less brutal to the population's well-being than the current governing body, and far more of a threat to world stability. Egypt can jail its bloggers and its religious institutions can use the courts to thwart threats to the status quo, but not forever.

Libya can mount a frantic public relations campaign to convince its population that because of the downfall of Tunisia's long-term tyrant, the entire country has erupted into violence and no one is safe, as compared to the placid, comfortable situation that obtains in Libya under the kindly auspices of its avuncular, highly regarded benign dictator, but its time will also come.

Algeria was first on the bloc to suffer a backlash that simply did not escalate as Tunisia's did, when it too lifted precious subsidies and raised the prices of fundamental commodities, raising the ire of its population. Arab countries have much in common aside from tribal authority and a shared religion, itself the subject of much unrest between vitriolic sects.

That is where unemployment plagues, where grumbling against a government that cannot deliver jobs is endemic, along with corruption and steadily rising prices throughout an oppressed Arab street. If young men see no future for themselves, cannot marry, have families and responsibilities because they have no employment, they turn to violence.

Just as in some Western countries like Greece, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark and the Czech Republic, violent demonstrations have taken place as protests against government austerity measures mount in the wake of the global economic downturn.

But it is in the Arab world at present, where Sudan is splitting; Arab north and Christian south as the south votes overwhelmingly to secede, and Tunisia where the people have rebelled, that change has been initiated.

Algeria is nervous in the wake of a number of suicide attempts; it was a blazing suicide that sparked Tunisia's current crisis as people have finally reacted to their condition of unrelenting poverty and endemic police repression.

And then there is Jordan, where, following their own agenda, Palestinians are fomenting violent protests; a Palestinian queen sharing Jordan's throne is not sufficiently conciliatory.

And Lebanon once again finds itself at a crossroad where on one side beckons violent freedom from Syria hegemony by a Lebanese army outmaneuvered and over-provisioned with arms by Syria's creature militia Hezbollah, or - one and the same thing - re-visiting shattering civil war.

Labels: Africa, Islam, Middle East, Traditions, Troublespots

posted by Pieface @ Monday, January 17, 2011