Sudan, Split
The largest of the African countries appears on the brink of splitting into two separate nations. That change in boundaries resulting in two countries emerging where one has existed where the largely Muslim and Arab north has dominated the largely Christian and black south has been a long time coming.The change is inevitable and needful. The south of Sudan has been awaiting its opportunity for independence, and to take charge of its destiny and geographical resources. It is those resources, petroleum-fossil-fuel-based, that may yet result in another war like the decades-long civil war between the north and the south that butchered millions, internally displaced millions more as refugees and solved nothing.
The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that resulted, however, did lead to the current vote to take place over the week-end that will see secession become a reality as long as 60% of eligible southern voters turn out.
If, as and when southern Sudan names itself completely autonomous, taking on the mantle of a nation, resolving to build the needed infrastructure in one of the poorest regions of Africa, with few resources other than those natural resources that northern Sudan has always availed itself of to spur on its own growth and prosperity, the real test will take place.
If the north creates a war situation to enable it to wrest ownership of those oil resources from the south, the dilemma of the customary exploitation of the south by the north will continue and each of the halves, but most particularly the south, will have no opportunity to bring resolute, practical nationhood into its near future.
The flood of southern Sudanese returning to their homes will find nothing but further hardships inflicted upon the entire south should violence-inclined President Omar al-Bashir and his political elites move to resume a state of war with the south. The north itself, despite its relative wealth compared to the endemic poverty of the south, is now in recession.
The central part of the country remains in dire straits, all the more so that Darfurians are still targeted by Khartoum, with hundreds of thousands of black Sudanese from Darfur remaining in squalid refugee camps, viciously abused and fearful of further abuse.
Sharia law is certain to be imposed upon what remains of Sudan, and Darfur will continue to be vulnerable to human rights abuses.
There have been no penalties exacted by the international community upon Khartoum for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Darfurians, and the continued predation on the dispersed and homeless people from Darfur, as al-Bashir expresses his contempt for the ruling of the International Criminal court, and the Muslim world supports him.
The entire country is set for further shocks with the outcome of the secession vote. Considering the history of the country and the brutality of its interrelationships there will be more than ample reports out of the country of further and ongoing humanitarian crises that the rest of the world will inevitably deplore.
The United Nations will wring its hands and Ban ki-Moon will state his distress.
Labels: Africa, Conflict, Political Realities, Poverty
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, January 08, 2011
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