generalspeaking

Libyan Showdown

The Libyan rebel militias claim to be moving increasingly closer to Tripoli. To taking military possession of the country's capital. On the verge, they claim, of finally ousting Moammar Gadhafi from the country he has for so long regarded as his personal fiefdom. Which, in point of fact, it was, for he has been its singular tyrant for a very long time.

His removal and the ascension of a more democratic ruling government would be hailed by the international community. Which has so long courted him in previous years, despite his reputation as a preeminent champion of terrorism.

International analysts, oil companies that have made such enormous investments in the country, and western governments are now increasingly concerned about the quality of the cohesion and purpose of the opposition, divided by internal strife. So divided along tribal lines and animosities, not helped too much by the assassination of General Younes, that it appears increasingly likely that a civil war could yet erupt.

Postwar recovery and the resumption of oil exports are top of mind for the western countries for whom NATO intervention and involvement in the rebel movement has amply demonstrated the level of concern for the future of the oil-rich African country. Of course all is not yet over with Moammar Gadhafi; in any event, he will not go quietly into that dark night.

"Gadhafi will have plenty of tricks up his sleeves until his very last breath. He will have instructed his sons and circle of loyalists, especially those remaining in the security services, to plant as many obstacles in the rebels' and transitional government's paths as possible, even in his absence." Hayat Alvi, U.S. Naval War College

General Abdel Fattah Younes's murder, the still-unexplained trajectory of events leading from his being summoned to appear before the National Transitional Council and his disappearance has created a widening gap between his tribe and that of the other major tribes within the NTC. Chaos is eventually as likely to erupt as an orderly transition of power.

"Remove a dictator and destroy his security apparatus and you are left with a scenario remarkably like Iraq, and look how long that has taken", observed one security specialist. Well, look at Iraq, the massive unrest and resistance under occupation, the brutal sectarian and tribal violence that ensued, and even now the suicide attacks that erupt.

While you're at it, look at Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. All these Arab and Islamic countries ruled by dictators and among whom the Western powers hover with their oil interests and strategic geopolitical interests, have rebelled with the population doing their utmost to unseat their tyrants and accomplish a turn to something resembling democratic rule.

All of them transfixed in paroxysms of public dissent and rage, all in various positions of either seeming to accept the public's demands to a degree, or brutally demolishing their arguments for freedom by doling out death. Libya seems to be absent the adverse sectarian-focused rage, but it has its share of tribal divisions.

The east and west of the country with its complex tribal divisions and ancient provincial boundaries may yet erupt from the tinder of mistrust and traditional animosities a Bedouin, tribal nomadic society is well known for. And the misgivings of Western analysts will see their direst of predictions erupt, after all.

Labels: Africa, Chaos, Middle East, Traditions, Troublespots

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, August 17, 2011