Thursday, November 03, 2011

Attacked From the North, South and Centre

Nothing quite like informing a target that they're next up. Something like NATO making it clear that their mission in Afghanistan is coming to an end, and the U.S., with its 140,000 troops still stationed there and struggling to maintain security while attempting control of the Taliban insurgency, giving the Taliban the advantage of the specific date of withdrawal.

In Israel, surprisingly loose tongues have given notice to the Islamic Republic of Iran that something is in the works.

Israel has mounted state-wide public drills for the population to become versed in precautions they must take in the event of rocket attacks due to another war situation. Israel has also tested a "ballistic missile", of a type described as a "test firing of the rocket propulsion system", capable of carrying a nuclear warhead the distance to Iran.

These and other preparations for some level of prioritized activity have alerted Iran to trouble ahead. "We take the threats seriously, no matter how remote or unlikely," said the head of Iran's armed forces, bowing Iran would 'punish' Israel, if it is attacked. Well, 'punishment' of Israel is in Iran's constitution, it would appear, and is destined to occur, irrespective of any attack by Israel, in any event.

Mind, it is not only Israel itself that is sufficiently perturbed, and with good reason, about Iran's intentions. The United Nations awaits the anticipated report of the International Atomic Energy Agency on its findings with respect to Iran's nuclear program, and its update that includes Iran's nuclear weapons program, paralleling its civilian energy goals.

Moreover, while it is being revealed that Israel is bruiting about the potential for a unilateral attack on Iran's nuclear installations, it would appear that the United States and the United Kingdom too have been in consultation about a joint program that would also brave a military attack against Iran's nuclear sites.

In Israel there is high-placed, military aversion to any such unilateral attack, for fear of what retaliation might look like. Iran would most certainly respond, and it would seem clear enough that a war would immediately ensue, engulfing other areas of the region. While most other Arab States would stand back content that Israel has committed itself, Iran's proxy militias would move on target, and so would an already-interior-embattled Syria.

Hezbollah possesses thousands of rockets and long-range missiles which would rain upon Israel from Lebanon. And Hamas, also backed by Iran, would take the opportunity to attack from turbulent Gaza. Likely one very possible scenario that has Israel's army chief, its head of intelligence, its chief of military intelligence and head of Israel's domestic intelligence agency, all reluctant to sign onto any such venture.

"This possible action is keeping me awake at night. Imagine we're [attacked] from the north, south and centre. They have short-range and long-range missiles. We believe they have about 100,000 rockets and missiles", groaned Israel's Interior Minister.

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