generalspeaking

With Divine Assistance

"Iran, with divine assistance, has always been ready to counter such hostile actions and we are not concerned at all about the sanctions." Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi

Which certainly goes far in explaining why the Islamic Republic has launched its most bellicose threats of late against the foremost engine of those sanctions. Possibly if Iran gets steamed up enough about the unfairness of it all, Allah will take notice and come to the aid of his most reliably loyal followers. On the other hand, Tehran may also be of the opinion that as an Islamic Republic of the highest order, it is incumbent upon the nation to represent as more than a mere symbol of Islamic power.

The ten days of war games recently concluded demonstrated, as far as Iran's rulers and its Republican Guard and military is concerned, how prepared they are to face the world, hostile to its entitlements in gaining its own nuclear arsenal with which to stare down the belligerence of its Muslim neighbours who steadfastly continue to refuse to acknowledge Iran as the region's super power. And, of course, its international persecutors who demand it set aside its nuclear ambitions.

It is now on course to present to the Middle East and the world at large an extension of its military games, this time focusing directly on the Strait of Hormuz. With an eye to demonstrating, doubtless, that it means what it says and it says what it means. That, should further destabilizing sanctions proceed, as it appears they will, given President Barack Obama's newest initiative and those on the horizon through the European Union, Iran will mobilize its resources to take an ownership option of the Strait.

Irritating to no end those who depend on the passage of Middle East oil to the waiting world market, through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway through which roughly 30% of the world's oil is shipped. "Today the Islamic Republic of Iran has full domination over the region and controls all movements within it", trumpeted Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps.

And lest the United States, that great and evil Satan, not have taken in the quiet threat recently issued, Iran is prepared to display its dominion over the waterway should the United States choose to re-enter the waters with its aircraft carrier. That the American Fifth Fleet is stationed in the area, and represents a far more powerful naval force than Iran's is irrelevant. For the obvious reason that God is with Iran, not America.

It was, of course, sailors from the USS John C. Stennis who took it upon themselves to board and free the Iranian vessel, the Al Molai, which had been taken, with its crew of thirteen, by pirates in the Arabian Sea. The captain of the Iranian fishing boat which had been taken and its crew held hostage for weeks by Somali pirates had the good grace and civility to thank the American carrier strike group for its intervention.

Tehran will of necessity view that as a hostile action as well. Linked to the new financial sanctions making it difficult for Iran's clients to purchase Iranian oil. And if Iran is still able to continue exporting, it may have to sweeten the pot for those of its clients who may think twice about facing the wrath of the U.S. and the E.U., by offering discounts. Effectively reducing Iran's already-reduced revenues.

Which state of affairs has deleteriously impacted the value of the Iranian currency, creating a desperate run on the banks by fearful Iranian citizens, attempting to rescue themselves from the very near prospect of poverty with their useless savings. Once fully implemented, the new U.S. sanctions will make it virtually unlikely that most countries will wish to buy Iranian crude for their refineries.

This game of one-upsmanship, with its obvious and inevitable awkwardness for the global economy, making energy more expensive and side-swiping an already-fragile and faltering economic recovery, obviously tilts both ways. Just as Iran's defiantly bellicose bellowing, threatening the free passage through international waters, threatening violence, threatening the certainty of its nuclear success, has come back to haunt it.

Perhaps with the new elections to take place in Iran, in the light of the fanatical tyranny, the now-feeble economy, its potentially blighted future prospects and propensity to corrupt ballot boxes will result in a more successful internal opposition, bringing another attempt at political change to a more successful conclusion, this time around.

Inshallah.

Labels: Iran, Middle East, Misadventure, Political Realities

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, January 07, 2012