Political Wresting Matches
"Two groups grapple fiercely with each other, cheered on by a small number of supporters at ringside, while the vast majority of the people in the packed stadium are silent and uninterested, because they regard the match as an exercise in futility.If it were possible that an internal political implosion were to take place in Tehran, it might possibly have the effect of forestalling an external atomic explosion. But that is just wishful thinking. It hardly matters which of the hardliners, the Khameneists or the Ahmadinejad-supporters is ultimately victorious, either and both are determined that the Islamic Republic of Iran become a nuclear power.
"The two groups that are fighting are the supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while the silent mass represents the large majority of the Iranian people who will, in all likelihood, sit out the elections." Muhammad Sahimi, Tehran Bureau
Iranian voters were set to go to the polls in a general election, this day. The last one, in 2009, resulted in mass protests because of the fraudulence evident throughout the election that brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back to the presidency of the country. At that time Grand Ayatollah Khamenei gave his unequivocal support to Ahmadinejad. And the mass protests were met with violence.
This time around the reformist opposition, suppressed but still simmering, but neutralized for now with its two leaders still under house arrest, saw to it that their supporters ignored the polls. The Guardian Council which oversees all potential parliamentary candidates to make certain they uphold Iran's Islamic constitution, barred 1,951 of the reformist from taking part as electoral candidates.
What remained was a predominately conservative field of 3,444 candidates all of whom are there to contest 290 seats in the Majles, the Iranian parliament. "These elections have been transformed into a sort of team wrestling match held in an enormous stadium", mused columnist Muhammad Sahimi.
"In Iran today, you put yourself at risk if you do anything that might fall outside the increasingly narrow confines of what the authorities deem socially or politically acceptable", explained Ann Harrison, deputy director of Amnesty International's Middle East program.
"Anything from setting up a social group on the Internet, forming or joining a [non-governmental organization], or expressing your opposition to the status quo can land you in prison."
And this time around, unlike the 2008 tainted election which saw Mahmoud Ahmadinejad resume the presidency, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is contesting, not supporting Ahmadinejad. They have clashed ideologically, even while the country has been embroiled in an international sanction program geared to stopping it from achieving its nuclear ambitions.
Ayatollah Khamenei is Ahmadinejad's superior and has powers that supersede the president's, while Ahmadinejad is attempting to overturn that hierarchy of power.
Dozens of his aides and supporters have been arrested or driven from office. His chief of staff and deep supporter whom he was grooming to take over the presidency, has been accused of sorcery, in attempting to reduce the power and influence of the leading ayatollahs.
Ayatollah Khamenei, in turn, is musing that Iran might consider scrapping the presidency, leaving a parliamentary system of government with a prime minister in constitutional charge.
Unless, of course, something occurs to upset the plans of both those mice as a result of other men taking decisions to obliterate their nuclear facilities, throwing them both out of action.
Labels: Conflict, Iran, Islamism, Political Realities
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, March 03, 2012
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