Prevailing Reason
President Barack Obama faces a difficult choice. He feels almost confident, puzzlingly, that reason will prevail, and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will reconsider his decision to forge ahead with the Islamic Republic's nuclear program on the basis of rational judgment. That, aided by the financial pain that Iran is facing as a result of the sanctions imposed upon it by the West.Pressure will do it, if reason does not. Pressure will presumably provide the reason for Iran to arrive at the conclusion that it cannot continue on its present course. How any responsible body could assess the stand-off between Iran and the world-at-large in this manner is in and of itself rather delusional. Nothing in Iran's responses thus far have given any indication that it is amenable to changing course.
A reasonable statesman might ponder the situation that Iran finds itself in to come to the conclusion that its insistence on attaining nuclear proficiency is simply not worth the censure, the trouble, the enmity, and the economic hardship. But this is Iran, which when convinced it is pursuing an agenda blessed by Islam, its Prophet and its One True God, will turn back for no other force than that which it worships.
President Obama speaks of a 'free for all' in the Middle East, that incendiary piece of geography, ready to implode and explode simultaneously at any given moment. He speaks of a 'nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world'. But this is precisely what would ensue if Iran were permitted to achieve its goal of nuclear supremacy.
All of its neighbours fear Iran's agenda.
If Iran successfully surmounted world condemnation and achieved nuclear status, they too would feel compelled to do likewise. Those in the Arab world are not known for cool-headed diplomacy. Their tribal mentality, sense of grievance, militance and obduracy would take them constantly to the edge of threats and beyond if they were in possession of nuclear weaponry.
Of course, Israel's trump card would then be shared by its neighbours. While Israel could be assured of never resorting to the ultimate weapon to destroy its enemies once and for all, there are few guarantees that its enemies would not take the final step of annihilating Israel, freeing Al Quds, while the Palestinian problem would also be solved, since nuclear weapons cannot distinguish ethnicity.
And the world at large, of course, becomes ever more vulnerable. The eventuality of nuclear weapons reaching the eager clutching hands of non-state militias like terror groups throughout North Africa and the Middle East becomes more likely. And since their grievance is also directed at the West, how long would it take before covert action successfully breaches borders and surveillance to unleash destruction in Europe and the United States?
So when Barack Obama's spokesman explains that the president is anxious to have patience, to give peace and diplomacy a chance, that it might be a good idea to allow sanctions to affect Tehran's decision-making, he is dreaming in technicolour.
Labels: Iran, Middle East, Technology, Terrorism, United States
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, March 04, 2012
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