Friday, August 10, 2012

Syria, Beautiful Mosaic of Ethnicities

Iran has hosted another 'international' conference.  At the conclusion of which, Iranian officials proudly announced they had received 'international support'.  Representatives at the diplomatic level from 28 countries were present at the Tehran conference.  Among those countries whose delegates were present at this international affair were Russia, China, India, Jordan, Zimbabwe, for example. 

There were no Western nations' delegates present at the conference.  Perhaps Iran overlooked invitations?  There were also no other Middle Eastern nations other than Iran and Jordan present.  The surprise is that Jordan was present at all.  Perhaps the press of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees desperate to escape the violence visited on them by the Syrian regime and the Syrian opposition made it seem desirable.

"Syrian society is a beautiful mosaic of ethnicities, faiths and cultures, and it will be smashed to pieces should President Bashar al-Assad abruptly fall", warned Ali Akbar Salehi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, in an opinion piece written to and published in the Washington Post.  The implication being, of course, that under President Bashar al-Assad different ethnic groups, religions and sects were given fair treatment, while under a Sunni-led government they would not be.

In that, at least, there appears to be some truth.  As Secretary General Ban Ki-moon lamented on behalf of the United Nations: "There will be no winner in Syria.  Now, we face the grim possibility of long-term civil war destroying Syria's rich tapestry of interwoven communities.  We cannot let this prediction (predicament?) come true." 

The thing of it is, while President al-Assad continues to vow he can see himself clear to negotiating with the rebels, the rebels, being bashed by artillery, helicopter gunships and warplanes, are not in the mood to negotiate with a regime they know full well will smash not only their resolve to succeed in unseating it, but every last man of them, should the opportunity arise.  Unsurprisingly, they are not amenable to the negotiating table.

Unless President al-Assad willingly departs, and there is no need to negotiate his leaving the country.  The armed forces have not yet launched their much-anticipated full-force ground assault on Aleppo.  It's hard to move tanks on terrain littered hill-high with rubble from trashed buildings they have themselves destroyed, sending tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing the assaults.

So the "serious and inclusive" talks ostensibly to take place between the Syrian government and opposition groups is not likely to eventuate.  Nor is the "foreign and military intervention in Syria" that Iran warns sternly against, likely to occur.  Given the fact that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are quietly engaged in supporting the rebels, and the West, though concerned, offers non-military support.

The West has finally learned a lesson that interference in Middle East and Muslim affairs rarely turns out as anticipated.  And they never know what forces they unleash when they helpfully take sides to unseat one tyrant only to have another darker one take its place.

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