"We are already in the midst of a three-way arms race among Russia the United States, and China."
"A resumption in testing of nuclear warheads would make this unstable situation worse, possibly far worse."
William Hartung, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
"By
foolishly announcing his intention to resume nuclear testing, Trump
will trigger strong international opposition that could unleash a chain
reaction of nuclear testing y U.S. adversaries and blow apart the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty."
Daryl Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association
"The
only one who would benefit from nuclear warhead testing would be China,
because they haven't done as many as Russia and the U.S."
"[As far as nuclear weapons themselves], everything is done now through computational testing."
"The
U.S. is far ahead of Russia and China on how much data it has from
this, so it really doesn't need it at the moment [explosive testing]."
"None
of them actually want to return to testing, but because they're
thinking the other is preparing for testing, then that's how we end up
testing."
"So that's the big risk involved at the moment."
Doreen Horschig, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
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|
"First
of all, every statement in that post [President Trump's musing
statement on his social media site, Truth Social] is wrong."
"It’s not true the
United States has the world’s most nuclear weapons. It’s not true that
other states are carrying out nuclear tests."
"[Trump] seems to think it’s
the Department of Defense that carries out nuclear tests. It’s not.
It’s the Department of Energy."
Matthew Bunn, nuclear weapons expert, Harvard University
"Neither China nor Russia has conducted a nuclear explosive test, so I’m not reading anything into it or
reading anything out."
"[The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation defines
nuclear tests as] generally controlled explosions of [a] nuclear device,
such as bombs or warheads [and Russia’s missile and torpedo tests do
not meet that strict definition]."
U.S. Navy
Vice Adm. Richard Correll
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| Photo: CORBIS/Corbis/Getty Images |
Once
again, U.S. President Donald Trump's casual musing and
extemporaneously-impulsive decision-making is turning incredulous heads
in disbelief, shocking supporters and critics alike, and cutting like a
buzzsaw through the corridors of international political diplomacy. This
is a man who likes to keep people on their toes, a man who doesn't mind
that what erupts from his mind and mouth is not particularly true, nor
his decisions based on his warped perspectives creating blinding
headaches for other world leaders; worth it all, and more, for the
attention he garners. Attention that is proof-positive of the exalted
political position he holds as the commanding, demanding most powerful
man at the helm of the world's sole super-power.
What
emerges from his mind and his mouth emits are his truths and if they're
his truths then everyone must pay due attention and with it the homage
he craves. Do otherwise and the wrath of this demi-God knows no bounds;
his decisions can make and break the most carefully guarded quality of a
nation's possessions; its economic health and security. While saying in
one breath that he abhors conflicts and human death, he embarks on his
own special eradication gambit, a 'war on terror' focusing on Venezuela
and authorizing U.S. military assets to blow fishing boats out of the
water in his measure of illustrating conflict/death.
U.S.
testing, he announced, of nuclear warheads would commence
"immediately", while on the other hand musing about the dire necessity
of prolonging non-proliferation agreements for the good of humanity. It
is not beyond reasonable to imagine the consequences that might ensue
from his impulse of resuming nuclear tests; the risk of an expanded arms
race becomes a huge potential. Nor that he announced his firm intention
to proceed instanter comes at a time when internaional arms control has
become wobbly.
If
Washington's decision via its incendiary president was meant to match
the positions taken by Beijing and Moscow, the president's decision
would logically have been to remain wary in the realization that those
he considers adversaries have the potential to resume nuclear testing,
yet have chosen to refrain from so doing, in favour of continuing to
honour the non-proliferation agreements they signed. Claiming that he
authorized nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Moscow and Beijing, is just Trump being Trump, take-it-or-leave-it.
He
has no realization that his 'immediate' decision itself cannot be
implemented 'immediately'; it would take years of preparation before
such resumption could take place, after a hiatus of decades. But it most
certainly would spur Beijing and Moscow to rush to engage their own
capabilities in a match with Washington's. All three of these world
powers have in the interim engaged in testing delivery systems, not
warheads; Russia's most recent of the platforms being tested appearing
to have galvanized Mr. Trump's response, clearly demonstrating he cannot
differentiate nuclear explosives from their delivery systems.
Beijing
responded politely indicating its hopes that Washington would
reconsider and remain respectful ofits obligations to the Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and "take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation system",
while Moscow took pains to carefully describe to the American president
that testing its nuclear-powered and -capable weapons did not
constitute a direct test of atomic weaponry. (It's the delivery systems, stupid!)
The
United States and Russia together represent the world's two leading
nuclear powers; China is behind them in developing its nuclear arsenal
but still remains far behind the other two. It was likely that last
year's Pentagon warning that China is moving quickly on nuclear arms,
particuraly in the development of operational warheads, that lodged
itself firmly in Mr. Trump's mind; he doesn't like to be upstaged by
anyone, nor that any other country reach for a position too close to
that of the United States in superiority of numbers of anything.
The
New Start arms control agreement between Washington and Mosow limits
each to 1,550 deployed strategic offensive warheads, including a
suspended verification mechanism, to expire in February2026, which
Russia has proposed extending for another year. "Sounds like a good idea to me", Trump responded, without committing to anything that solid. "We are starting to work on that, a big problem for the world when you take off nuclear restrictions",
he averred, in direct contradiction with the position he now takes.
China's warhead total is one-third of that of Russia and the U.S.
And
then there is the existential question, querulous but potently aware:
How many warheads does it take to destroy this Earthly home we share? A
minute proportion of the total, presumably. Which brings us to another
question: How absurdly, dangerously pathetic can the powers that
threaten our survival possibly be? Their actions, needless to say answer
the second question, and until and unless a final solution is
seriouisly entertained we won't know the answer to the first. And
wouldn't know it in any event, since there woould be no one left to do
the calculations of that Eureka! moment.
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| President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping look at each
other after their summit meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30,
2025. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP |
"The post also comes just weeks after Putin offered to continue to
observe the limits of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New
START) if the United States reciprocated. On October 28, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed his “hope” that Trump would positively
respond to Putin’s offer and the principles discussed at the Anchorage
Summit, saying,
“President Trump has repeatedly spoken positively about this initiative
put forward by President Putin, so we are actually hoping that these
positive reactions will be translated into some kind of official
announcement.” Other than an off-handed remark
by Trump that it sounded “like a good idea,” there has been no official
announcement from the White House on the future of New START, which
expires in February 2026 and is the last remaining bilateral strategic
arms control agreement of its kind. Trump’s post could also be an effort
to generate negotiating leverage with Moscow."
"Finally, the administration should also take the opportunity to clarify
Trump’s statements and recommit to nuclear agreements that are in U.S.
interests. Washington would be worse off if states, particularly China,
return to nuclear testing, which it likely would in response to U.S.
test plans. This would undermine the norm against nuclear testing and
could result in a reverse normative cascade, with implications for other rules of the road, such as nuclear nonproliferation."
Heather Williams, director, Project on Nuclear Issues, senior fellow, Defense and Security Department, Center
for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C.