Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Taliban Peace Terms

Might this be once again the flavour of the day?  A report compiled by the Royal United Services Institute in the wake of interviews with four senior Taliban figures close to Mullah Mohammad Omar whose best friend and colleague-in-ideology was Osama bin Laden claim the Taliban is now prepared to forsake al-Qaeda, and welcome U.S. bases in Afghanistan.

The four senior Taliban figures represent a former government minister, one of the Taliban's founding members, and a mujahedeen commander.  Haven't we heard this benign chorus before?  A negotiated settlement for Afghanistan could permit the withdrawal of the greater mass of Western troops in 2014 minus the concern of the country descending further into chaos.  According to this assessment.

The Taliban representatives have spoken quietly and gently, assuring that there exists "no natural enmity" on their part directed toward the Americans.  They would be agreeable to accepting a long-term American military presence if it helped the security of their country.  Five U.S. military bases in Kandahar, Herat, Jalalabad, Mazer-e-Sharif and Kabul, until 2024.

No, really.  The suddenly mercifully-practical Taliban would welcome the presence of the Americans hoping that 'military assistance' would transmogrify over a period of time into 'economic assistance'.  The hissing hatred within Afghan culture of foreigners on Afghan soil is only just a silly rumour; what on Earth would make NATO think that is the case?  Just because the Taliban fought tooth and ragged nail to blow foreigners to smithereens?

The four Taliban representatives balked at having their names released.  Little wonder.  Under current circumstances, it seems a most prudent insistence.  Once a ceasefire had been declared, they declared, they would be prepared to renounce al-Qaeda.  Ah, one caution: they could not speak for the intransigent,  more hard-line Taliban, and how they might conceivably respond to the proposal.
"The report shows that the outlook of the Taliban leadership has changed over the past three years.  There is an acceptability now that this conflict cannot be won and an outright victory is almost unforeseeable.  
"It will obviously be difficult for (British Prime Minister) David Cameron to sell a deal with the Taliban when British troops are dying in Helmand. It will be equally difficult for the Taliban to sell negotiating with the so-called infidels.  But a narrative is needed that is acceptable to both sides."

The Taliban insist that the corrupt regime of President Hamid Karzai must be tossed overboard.  The U.S. would have to guarantee it would not seek to attack Pakistan or Iran from its Afghan bases; the deal would be terminated if that occurred.  Drone strikes must come to an end.  A new Afghan constitution must be drawn up.

In addition, the Taliban would most definitely not be prepared to lay down their weapons.  Abiding by the current constitution would be tantamount to a surrender.  Too bad about previous high-stakes negotiations that failed because the Taliban made a last-minute decision to cancel a political office to foster peace contacts in Qatar.

Deal?

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