The Cautionary Principle
So there is the complicating factor in all of the already-complex and nuanced strategies being considered by the outside world attempting to reach a degree of consensus about what could be done to aid the civilians of Syria whose government continues to shell and to assault them with deadly force.The contestants on the surface; a hard-core tyrannical regime determined to outlast the rebellion brought to the fore courtesy of tribal and sectarian antipathies, and a majority population striving to have its status upgraded with the ouster of an oppressive regime; the rebels aided by Islamists, Salafists, al-Qaeda-linked militias.
Support, encourage and arm, much less intervene actively and begin practically aiding the rebels and you are 'on the side of' the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists, the al-Qaeda militants. And then what? Turkey, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are prepared to arm the rebels, and are eager for NATO to declare a no-fly zone. NATO demurs, Libya and its fallout in Mali and the Benghazi attack potent reminders.
The regime of President Bashir al-Assad already has its supporters; Iran's Republican Guard, and its proxy militia Hezbollah fully engaged on the scene of battle. And Iraq has been most helpful, providing Syria with needed oil in support of its mission to obliterate the Free Syrian Army and a good portion of Sunni Syrian civilians as well. Portents of what is yet to come have arisen.
The rebels have reminded the West that they will take help from any source, including al-Qaeda, if the West remains too squeamish about committing themselves to halt the slaughter of Syrian civilians.
And there is more than adequate proof that this is precisely what is occurring, with the al-Qaeda-affiliated extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra reported by Al Jazeera to have aided the rebels in assaulting a government missile defence base in southern Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra is reported to have taken the lead in the attack; a number of missiles were seized from the base by fighters wearing black masks.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has stated to the best of their knowledge that Jabhat al-Nusra has fought as well with other rebel groups. The presence of extremists is cited as reason not to supply the rebels with arms from the West. This is a sadly circuitous argument with no end in sight of solution.
Jabhat al-Nusra has been posting news of its attacks within Syria on jihadi forums used by al-Qaeda. The al-Qaeda leadership has called upon Muslims to gather and muster themselves in Syria to support the rebels against the Alawite tyranny. And the heavy weaponry falling into extremist hands continues to haunt the practical imaginations of the West, as it should.
The nightmare scenario of biological and chemical weapons falling into the hands of extremists is compellingly awful.
Labels: Conflict, Middle East, Political Realities, Societal Failures, Syria, Terrorism
posted by Pieface @ Monday, October 15, 2012
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