The Alternative and Consequences
"The West, for all its rhetorical bombast, has restricted the flow of important weapons. They have not brought down this regime because they are frightened of the alternative."
Professor Joshua Landis, University of Oklahoma; Syria Comment blog
The alternative can be conceived of having dread consequences. The "West" has had ample previous experience to look back on, as reason enough to hesitate. And in this particular instance what may very well eventuate may be far more seriously disadvantageous to the interests of the West and that of a signal proportion of the population in Syria than has occurred elsewhere. Although, truth to tell, the horrors seen and experienced in Iraq and latterly in Libya were lesson enough.
The Shia/Alawite regime of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has morphed into a lethal instrument of destruction, aiming at the elimination of the threat to its longevity. The Alawite population of Syria is a minority in the country. The Sunnis initially attempted protesting to persuade their benevolent dictator to lift their oppression and give them a taste of equality. President al-Assad sought to assuage the protests with words, then resorted to the persuasion of abduction, torture and murder.
Neither words nor vicious abuse were found acceptable by the majority protesters and they changed themselves into a revolutionary movement, assembling themselves into militias with little organization but much lethal determination; measure for measure to reflect the violence of the regime.
They were encouraged by the international community after the Arab League, deploring President al-Assad's methodology, found themselves unwilling to commit to more than censure. And then came the delirious figment of UN censure and useless observational intervention.
The reality mounted that the growing insurrection born of tribal and sectarian hatred had attracted mujahadeen from battle-hardened areas like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon and Libya; al-Qaeda allied groups with the skills and experience to lead the assaults that the Free Syria Army so desperately needed to make some headway in their battles against the regime ruthless enough to employ airstrikes over civilian areas and plan what is suspected to be chemical attacks.
All of the militias are painted by the same broad brush of terrorists by the Syrian regime. There were, in absolute truth Islamists always hovering in the background of the Syrian civil war; Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist groups, and al-Qaeda in Iraq jihadists, with growing numbers from elsewhere eager to battle in the name of an Islamist conquest, to bring sharia law to yet another Arab and Muslim state.
NATO will long question its eagerness to involve itself in the uprising against Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. Tthat decision has been, in the long run, responsible for greater unrest in Libya with armed militias still exacting their revenge against those they scorn, and with Mali's north now being taken by Islamists using Libyan arms. Looted Libyan arms depots have hugely benefited jihadist groups.
Benghazi was a lesson to both the U.S. and NATO, but even before the assault on the U.S. mission there, it was obvious that intervention with a no-fly zone and air attacks on Libyan troops was a careless miscalculation never taking into account the longer, larger perspective. Just as the tyrannical Gadhafi was mercilessly tormented, tortured and slaughtered, so too will such treatment be meted out to Syria's Alawites, perhaps as well its Christians in good time.
"Assad has effectively held his community hostage and convinced them to go down this road, which could very well lead to horrible retribution. He cannot leave them defenceless by swanning off", stated Professor Landis. And reminds a senior analyst with Maplecroft risk analysis group, the links between the regime and most senior military officers ensure few defections in Assad's inner circle.
They will continue to fight to the end, for they have little other choice; their very lives depend on it. And President al-Assad, fighting to recover his regime, desperate to safeguard his very life, will not be averse to using any means available to him, for any purpose he deems to be to his advantage. His game is not yet over.
Labels: Conflict, Culture, Human Fallibility, Islamism, Political Realities, Syria
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, December 16, 2012
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