Thursday, January 10, 2013

Fears, Trials and Tribulations

"I think the Russians understood this is the one thing that could get us to intervene in the war. What Assad understood, and whether that understanding changes if he gets cornered in the next few months, that's anyone's guess."
Senior defence official

Close call.  A panic situation in the strategic intelligence and war rooms of a number of nations.  All contemplating the horror unleashed on a portion of the Syrian population, on the rebel militias, possibly even within Turkey, Jordan, Israel - or aiming at American troops installed nearby.  The irritant quotient being expressed at giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

Plenty of hustle to spare, with NATO and the United States helping Jordan and Turkey to prepare for the possibility of a chemical attack.  Weapons of mass destruction do not leave in their wake pretty scenes for posterity.  They wreak atrocious havoc in widespread and horrible death.  Depending, they say, on which way the wind blows.

So when Israel's top military commanders placed an emergency call to the Pentagon in late November to warn of suspicious looking activities picked up through satellite imagery that looked unmistakably like Syrian troops were mixing chemicals and filling 500-pound bombs to be loaded onto waiting airplanes, the panic was fairly well placed.

Resulting in additional emergency calls to influences that had the desired impact on President Bashar al-Assad and for the moment at least, the situation was defused.  Not forgotten, not put away for good, but put aside for the moment.  If enough of a reason to proceed presented itself all it would take would be the order to commence, and a few hours later all would be lost, so to speak.

An advance for the Syrian regime, and a rather large set-back for the hopes of a nation to find itself back in the past which looks so desirable now, no matter how irritated people were, back then at the unfairness of their situation.  That was virtual Paradise compared to the hell they're now living.  Never knowing when regime planes will strafe their neighbourhoods.

Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced refugees, and just as large numbers living as refugees in Jordan and Turkey and Lebanon.  Electricity, comfort and warmth in the winter season no longer reliable.  Bread scarce because the ovens cannot be fired due to the scarcity of gas for fuel.  Food aid through NGOs reaching a mere half of those who need it to survive. 

Yes, the past looks in retrospect downright idyllic.

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