Friday, February 01, 2013

The African Islamist Springboard

"The French and Malian forces are dealing with an enemy -- jihadists -- that don't have a fixed address, that don't wear uniforms. It's an enemy that can disappear into the population and come out at will. The insurgents play the long game. They are not in a hurry, the French are. The Islamists could use the population as human shields. They could use suicide bombers. This is not a conventional war."
Ayo Johnson, director, Viewpoint Africa think-tank, London

Control of the three key cities in northern Mali has been successfully taken from the extremists that held the area in terror for far too long before the United Nations took note and instructed the African Union that it should assemble a collective army and march to free Mali from its malevolent invaders.

Too late for many of Timbuktu's fabled heritage sites and sacred artefacts, and too late for the Malians unfortunate enough to bring attention to themselves, inciting in their innocence, the Islamists to mete out morbid punishment. In the presence of morbid fanatics, it is never a good idea to allow one's heretical streak to be visible, the penalties are dear with lopped-off extremities.

The armed and well-fortified extremists, now waiting new opportunities will be patient. This rout is as far as they are concerned, a temporary set-back. Their loss of Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal an inconvenience to their long-range plans, but their plans are long-range, and they will wait. The French are anxious to withdraw, and withdraw they most certainly will.

Taking with them their skills in fighting insurgencies, leaving the mop-up and further, future incursions to the African Union.

But the extremists have demonstrated how well they are able to orchestrate invasions, taking everyone by surprise. What they have done once, they will do again. Despite their temporary ouster, they will return. That they are merciless is without doubt. Their surprise attack in Algeria at the In Amenas plant was unexpected, and also successful. They struck terror into the hearts of their captives, and they provided for them a most unusual experience.

"There was one big explosion and we saw the fire burning all night", explained Lufti Benadouda, the Algerian general manager of the gas plant. "We found the hostages had been tied to the structure and put close to each other... The terrorists wanted a big explosion. They wanted to destroy the plant and make a big impression. The next day we arrived at the plant. It was my job to identify the bodies of my colleagues, but I could not, except one, an American."

Scores of dead, both Algerian and foreign workers. Along with some of the terrorists. A stand-off with the Algerian military. A threat to the stability of Algeria, as a spill-over from Mali, with the extremists that survived returning to Mali afterward, when the In Amenas plant had been liberated. Vigilance and awareness are never enough. With determination and skill, those determined to wreak havoc can and will.

The attackers, called themselves the Signatories in Blood Battalion. No overstatement, that.

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