generalspeaking

Just Can't Win For Losing

Co-operation eludes the Syrian rebels. There are far too many obstacles in the path of viewing their rebellion collectively against the Shi'ite leadership of their country, despite the fact that it is the majority Sunni population that has finally declared itself unwilling to live any longer under the dictatorship of a minority regime. There are said to be hundreds of tribal rebel militias under arms representing the Sunni cause of removing President Bashar al-Assad from power.

They act independently under the broad umbrella of the Free Syrian Army.

But co-ordination and co-operation play second fiddle to independence and rivalry. If they had exercised the discipline of co-operation they would likely be in a far different position now as regards command and power than they now do. They are demoralized, resentful, undisciplined and ineffective as a collective fighting force because, simply, they do not represent a collective but rather a motley crew of militias incapable of fighting a common cause in a resolute partnership.

If things had evolved differently and the militias had assembled under a central command with well-planned and executed orders obedient to the need to co-operate and thus make effective use of their manpower and weaponry they would not now be at the mercy of the thousands of Islamist jihadis who have streamed into Syria from all points of the Muslim world infected with a flaming display of violently psychopathic terror-pathology.

And their allied assumption of togetherness would have seen them far more successful in the theatre of conflict pitting their military numbers and weapons against those of the Alawite regime of the Baathist Shias. Their capture of signal towns and suburbs giving them an advantage would not now be challenged by the regime augmented by the presence of Hezbollah forces and those of the al Qods unit of the Iranian Presidential Guard Corps.

They would be capable of holding their own, a situation that is slowly but surely being reversed. They might have, through strength of numbers and determination, been capable of striking agreements with the Sunni Islamists and not now submitting to the very real fear that the al-Qaeda-linked groups will eventually destroy what little unity they have managed to amass, and to force their presence on the country transforming it entirely in the image of an Islamist theocracy without pity.

That is, if the combined forces of Syria-Iran-Hezbollah do not manage to prevail. In the Qalamoun offensive Hezbollah, despite its many and severe losses is expected to play a lead role. That campaign is expected to last for months; a counter-insurgency with Hezbollah air power and artillery. "This is a battle between Qassem Suleimani (head of Iran's elite Quds Force) and Bandar bin Sultan (chief of Saudi intelligence)", one Hezbollah wit allowed, expressing a very real behind-the-scenes rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia playing out in Syria.

The violent backlash anticipated in Lebanon as a result of the campaign in the Qalamoun region has already resulted in a display of ferocious atrocities. The first bomb that was detonated outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut yesterday had 4.4 pounds of explosive used by a suicide bomber on a motorcycle, detonating his device beside the embassy gates. This is the recognized modus operandi of al-Qaeda.

When crowds of curious and frightened Lebanese had gathered after the first explosion, the second bomb carrying about 110 pounds of explosive blew up just outside the embassy entrance two minutes later. This formula has succeeded admirably in terms of the dead and the maimed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Pakistan. And now, it is Lebanon's turn. Courtesy of the Abdullah al-Azzam Brigades.

"They are saying the only acceptable retaliation is to bomb the Saudi Embassy [in Beirut]", one resident of Beirut said. Hezbollah cadres have blamed Saudi Arabia for the bombing, and are demanding revenge. Of course whatever happens in the Middle East, and regardless of its target or its source is also the fault of Israel. Israel too, is slated to be targeted for revenge.

"We got the message and we know who sent it and we know how to retaliate", said Ali Mikdad, a Hezbollah lawmaker, speaking of the perpetrators of the embassy bombing in an interview with Lebanon's Al Mayadeen TV channel.

Lebanese men run to remove the injured from burned cars, at the scene where two deadly explosions struck near the Iranian Embassy, in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 19. Hussein Malla/AP

Labels: Atrocities, Conflict, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamists, Syria

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, November 20, 2013