The Mysteries of Hidden Agendas
"I urge Secretary Kerry not to rush to sign -- to wait, to reconsider, to get a good deal ... it's a very dangerous and bad deal for peace.
"I understand that the Iranians are walking around very satisfied in Geneva, as well they should be, because they got everything. They wanted relief from sanctions after years of a gruelling sanctions regime. They got that. They are paying nothing because they are not reducing in any way their nuclear enrichment capability.
"This is a very bad deal. Israel utterly rejects it."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
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| The heavy-water reactor and plant at Arak could be operational next year |
Of course Israel's opinion is seen by the United States to be extraneous; irritatingly present, but unasked for. It is the corroborative opinion of the G5+1 -- The United States, China, Russia, France, Britain (all permanent members of the UN Security Council) -- plus Germany, that counts. But perhaps The U.S. administration counted out Israel's concerns a trifle too cavalierly. For it would seem that all the facts on the ground are, in fact, with Israel.
Israel's concerns are shared with most of its Middle East neighbours. A virtual consensus has appeared among the most unlikely of collaborators-in-concern, in that Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are usually in opposite corners, slugging it out amongst themselves, with Israel getting the hard knocks. Now they appear equally concerned, enough so that the prospect of Iran lulling the G5+1 into the complacency of deliberate ignorance over the Republic's nuclear agenda has them in a coalition of the resistance.
And France has listened to them. Although it is France's objections to finalizing a deal that Iran appeared to think it had got off scot-free in gulling those who had imposed those crippling economic sanctions in order to impede the lightning-swift progress of the Islamic republic's intentions toward nuclear warheads -- oops, better make that medical isotopes and domestic energy -- Mr. Netanyahu pointed out that more members of the EU were involved in a cycle of mutual concern.
"I want to emphasize that there are still some very important issues on the table that are unresolved. I want to emphasize that there is not an agreement at this time. I don't think anybody should mistake that there are some important gaps that have to be closed", urged Secretary of State John Kerry, reassuringly. It seems no one was reassured. Particularly when he iterated and reiterated that President Obama could be trusted, should be taken at his word.
That assurance seemed not to have gained a lot of traction for the American drive to arrive at a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Perhaps President Obama has burned the trust of his friends and allies with his immediate-past series of misadventures. Mr. Kerry was so assured that the deal was ready to be signed, he dropped the remainder of his Middle East tour to rush to Geneva to direct final proceedings and take the credit he feels due.
Only to discover a little bit of last-minute agreement tampering courtesy of the EU's Catherine Ashton and the U.S. Undersecretary of State allowing Iran's Javad Zarif to make last-minute changes to the document. Those amendments, hugely favouring the recalcitrant position of the Islamic Republic of Iran that it is entitled to uranium enrichment at any level, that it will not shutter any of its nuclear sites, reflected precisely what Mr. Netanyahu warned of.
"You know, the French are very irritating. When the Americans absolutely want to do something, the French have this terrible habit of somewhat disagreeing. We actually have experience in dealing with the Iranians directly. There used to be negotiations between the Europeans (and the Iranians) between 2023 and 2005", wryly commented analyst Francois Heisbourg of the Foundation for Strategic Research think-tank in Paris.
France rather does know Iran well. It, like the United States and Israel, had experience with the Iran of the Shah Pahlavi's time. It also had the dubious distinction of having given harbour to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei in exile, before the Shah was unceremoniously removed -- another of America's long-time allies it decided to throw to the wolves of change -- and Khomenei returned to lead the Islamic Revolution.
"We are not blind, and I don't think we're stupid", Mr. Kerry advised soberly in an NBC Meet the Press interview. "I think we have a pretty strong sense of how to measure whether or not we are acting in the interests of our country, and of the globe, and particularly of our allies." Perhaps, this is his interpretation, but to America's allies, who have experienced such thought-provoking episodes of being let down by their powerful ally, it may not seem so, quite.
Never one to surrender a situation to despair, Mr. Kerry nonetheless professed his opinion that progress has been made. Negotiations will continue on November 20. The issue is clear enough; the European Union and the Sunni countries of the Middle East remain concerned over Iran's intransigence and determination to proceed with its nuclear plans. Which is to say, the covert production of nuclear warheads. A prospect that does not imbue its neighbours with comfort.
And they are determined to do everything possible to forestall that seeming inevitability. In the process of which there will be an eventual stampede in the oil-rich kingdoms and sheikdoms to counter the perceived threat with their own safeguard; namely their own nuclear-producing warheads for insurance purposes. As though the geography isn't already enough of a tinder-box.
These are issues that terrorist-inspiring Iran is not particularly concerned with. They want their prosperity restored, and their nuclear aspirations to no longer face insupportable interference from the West. The sanctions imposed to slow the progress of their goal have produced intolerable restraints on their national financial state.
One can only suppose it has occurred to no one at the bargaining table to suggest that Ayatollah Khamenei possesses riches through his powerful Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam organization to the value of $94-billion, more than capable of pulling the country out of its sanctions-constrained economic fix.
In the event, the threat is there, looming large and sinister, and it is real, not imagined, not resulting from a misunderstanding. The sanctions are there for a definite, determined purpose. And there they should remain. What the U.S. administration's end-game in this absurd scenario of the G5+1 professing to take overtures from the Iranian administration seriously is the question that requires answering.
Labels: Conflict, EU, France, G5+1, Iran, Israel, Negotiations, Nuclear Technology, Sanctions, United States
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, November 12, 2013
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