"This is a person [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] who keeps his word — a man."

"He does not follow his tail. If he believes it is advantageous for his country, he goes to the end"

"There is an element of predictability, and it is very important to understand who you are dealing with."

Vladimir Putin, 2021

 

"[Putin’s words are] exactly how I have known Mr. Putin since I first met him."

"He is straightforward and keeps his word."

"It is rare to have such strong relations with any state."

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Kremlin on March 5, 2020 in Moscow, Russia/ Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

  

"On Nov. 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over Syria, resulting in the deaths of two Russian soldiers and prompting a sometimes spine-chilling war of words. At his annual press conference in December that year, Putin’s description of Erdoğan was quite different from the one he gave five years later. He said he did not “see any prospect of improving relations with the Turkish leadership,” whom he accused of trying to “lick the Americans in a certain place”."

"Sinking the knife in even deeper, Putin accused Erdoğan of betraying the secular system put in place by Turkey’s national hero, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. “The creeping Islamization would probably cause Atatürk to turn in his grave,” he said. Erdoğan, for his part, lambasted Russian “war crimes” in Syria. Russia imposed sanctions, with the package holidays that brought hundreds of thousands of tourists to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast halted and goods like Turkish tomatoes no longer welcome in the other direction."

Stuart Williams, New Lines Magazine  

Suddenly Turkey is Ukraine's best friend -- no, really. With Erdogan's courteous assistance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy now has cordial ingress to the movers-and-shakers of the Middle East. Many of whom have been under extreme violent duress, with the Islamic Republic of Iran punishing the Gulf states for their friendliness with the United States, not to mention Israel. U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, all of whom have been, to some degree targeted by the IRGC; above all, the United Arab Emirates.

 

If any leader of any country currently knows anything about counteroffensives and self-preservation, it is the Ukrainian President, and he is more than pleased to be able to demonstrate what the Ukrainian military has learned while it has been under massive bombardment by an aggressive, much larger conventionally armed neighbour. The Iran war has enabled Mr. Zelenskyy to cultivate closer ties with Gulf states. The Shahed-136 kamikaze drones that Russia uses in Ukraine have been supplied to Iran by Russia and China.

 

At the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.  President of Ukraine

 

Ukraine's answer to the devastating attacks on its cities and civil infrastructure was almost-instant devising, production and use of surprisingly simple advance drone technology which has given it longer reach into Russia itself, demonstrating what's good for the goose is fine for the gander in blowing up Russian military bases, bridges, ships, weapons storage, and oil depots. Ukrainian resistance has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands Russian servicemen monthly, dealing severe blows to Russia's troop numbers and recruitment.

 

With all that experience behind them, Ukraine was pleased to dispatch air defense teams to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey, in ushering Ukraine into the comfort zone of making new contacts in the Middle East, has a new partner, as it leaves behind the old one with which its own agenda was never quite a perfect fit. After all, during the drawn-out civil war in Syria, Turkey armed the Sunni groups trying to break Bashar al-Assad's Alawite grip on the country, even as Erdogan targeted Kurds whose fighting prowess was superior to all of the regime's opponents.

 

And it was Russian warplanes out of the Russian air base in Syria that constantly flew over Sunni strongholds bombing them mercilessly. Just incidentally the very same Sunni fighting groups that Mr. Putin has attempted after the fall of President Assad, (domiciled now in Russia), to ingratiate himself with, hoping to be able to maintain both his remaining naval and air bases in the new Sunni-led government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

 

The Russian military presence in Syria has declined significantly over the past two years, from 114 military sites to only two bases today. [Getty]

 

In the early years of Russia's conflict in Ukraine when Moscow was isolated by the West, Turkey, though a standing member of the NATO alliance, spurned the sanctions. In the process becoming a link for Russian trade, investment and energy flows. A situation that gave Ankara greater leverage over Moscow. Russia, before the ouster of the Syrian Alawite regime, could do anything it wanted there and had hundreds of military bases; now under the new Sunni-led regime, reduced to two, albeit its major bases. 

 

It is Turkey that is now the power lever in Syria, helping its interim president al-Sharaa to be presented to the EU, the U.S. as the new, kinder, 'democratic' face of Syria with whom they could all do business with confidence. And in the process, Turkey has become the king-maker, which suits its future plans of greater dominance in the Middle East very well. A role that as a junior partner to Russia for so many years, Russia cultivated for itself, while it is Turkey now that has inserted itself in helping to rebuild the Syrian Army.

 

By openly giving assistance to Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, Mr. Erdogan is amply demonstrating that once again Turkey has spurned its sometimes-tenuous, but generally past-useful allyship with Russia, moreover a Russia that has, by its territorial aggression served to isolate itself, while continuing to aggravate and threaten his eastern European neighbours and needling NATO, of which Turkey is a member. Vladimir Putin and his war-wearied economy has lost the projection of global power, and Turkey for the time being has no further use of his allyship with Russia. 

 

Russian and Turkish delegations at a summit in Tianjin, China, September 2025 Vladimir Smirnov / Reuters

 

Cuban Missile Crisis Redux...

"Based on the highly provocative statements of the former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that."

"Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences. I hope this will not be one of those instances."

"Medvedev said some things that are very bad, talking about nuclear. When you mention the word nuclear my eyes light up and I say we better be careful, because it's the ultimate threat."

"A threat was made and we didn't think it was appropriate, so I have to be very careful. So I do that on the basis of safety for our people. A threat was made by a former president of Russia, and we're going to protect our people."

U.S. President Donald J. Trump 

Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS Maine transits Puget Sound during routine operations, March 18, 2025.   Specialist 1st Class Ryan Riley/U.S. Navy

 

"Trump's playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn't Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war."

"Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country."

"Don't go down the Sleepy Joe road!"

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy chair, Russia's security council

 

"[The Patriot transfer to Ukraine was made possible by an agreement with the U.S. that Germany would be] the first nation to receive newly produced, latest-generation Patriot systems at an accelerated pace [which Berlin would pay for]."

"[The delivery to Ukraine would also include] additional system components within the next two to three months."

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius 

Dmitry Medvedev (right) has sparred with Donald Trump on social media in recent days. Getty Images

 

After Trump shortened the timeline for his ceasefire-or-sanctions ultimatum, Medvedev responded Monday by warning him that was a step towards war. He added, "Don't go down the Sleepy Joe road!"

• Trump responded in a post on Truth Social calling Medvedev a "failed former President" and warning him to "watch his words" as he's entering "dangerous territory."
• On Friday morning, Medvedev fired back with an allusion to Russia's "Dead Hand" automated strike system — which purportedly could unleash a full-scale nuclear response in the event Russia was struck first.
• Medvedev also mocked Trump, saying "if a few words from the former President of Russia can provoke such a jittery reaction from the mighty President of the United States, then Russia must be completely in the right."

Axios

 More bodies pulled from under rubble in yet another aerial bombardment from Russia, with numbers of dead doubling, to reflect the deadliest strike so far this year on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. While recovery operations commence, Germany has stepped in to announce it plans to provide two Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, in coming days. Berlin is poised at the top of a list to obtain new-model replacements of the Patriot systems from the United States in an exchange agreement.

 

Ukraine desperately needs more air defences to stave off strikes from unrelenting Russian missile and drone attacks, and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pleaded with Ukraine's western allies to provide them. In July alone, stated President Zelenskyy, Russian forces launched some 3,800 drones, 250 missiles -- including 128 ballistic missiles and 5,100 guided bombs. Ukrainian forces are using outdated equipment in attempting to intercept the drones and missiles; whatever they have in their antiquated arsenal is clearly lacking effectiveness.

 

The "vile blow" of the Thursday overnight attack demonstrated that additional pressure on Moscow was required, stated Mr. Zelenskyy, going on to say that Ukraine's allies in the west should tighten their sanctions regime against the Kremlin, something that U.S. President Donald Trump has been threatening to do. "No matter how much the Kremlin denies their effectiveness, [the sanctions] are working and must be stronger -- to hit everything that allows such strikes to continue."

 

President Trump is preparing to slap additional sanctions on Moscow to place pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire. Trump characterized the Russian airstrikes on civilian targets in Ukraine as 'disgusting' and 'a disgrace', even while himself questioning the effectiveness of further sanctions to convince Russian President Putin to agree to a ceasefire. "I don't know that sanctions bother  him. I don't now if that has any effect, but we're going to do it", said the U.S. president.

 

He also said on Friday that he had ordered two nuclear submarines positioned "in the appropriate regions" after former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reminded the U.S. that Moscow still has robust nuclear strike capabilities. President Trump had earlier in the week tightened the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire from the previous stated 50 days to ten days, for Russia to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine or face new sanctions.

 

Explosions seen in Kyiv during Russian attack   Still from video

 

Ukrainian air defences have been overwhelmed by the numbers and frequency of cruise and ballistic missiles, along with drones fired at Ukrainian targets by Russian forces. The missile clusters in combination with waves of drones have been devastating for the ill-equipped, overworked Ukrainian military teams, with no relief in sight. Expectation of the receipt of the Patriot missile systems will substantially boost both Ukrainian morale and the functionality of Ukraine's response to the bombardments.

 

Thursday's overnight attack saw over 300 drones across Ukraine, with 21 drones striking  targets, the brunt borne by Kyiv, stated Ukraine's air force. Of the eight cruise missiles fired, five penetrated Ukraine's air defences, according to the Ukrainian military. 

 

Sputnik/Alexei Maishev and REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

 

 

  

The Oppressed People of Revolutionary Iran Amidst its Nuclear Threat

"[Negotiating with the United States would be neither] wise, intelligent nor honourable. Negotiating with such a government should not be done."

"We must understand this correctly and not be misled into thinking that sitting at the negotiation table with that government will resolve certain matters. No, negotiations with the United States will not solve any problems."

"They make statements about us, express opinions and issue threats. If they threaten us, we will threaten them. If they act on those threats, we will do the same. If they undermine our nation's security, we will undoubtedly respond in kind."

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran, Iran

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Photographer: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

 

The Islamic Republic of Iran has for years suppressed the wishes of the Iranian people to live fruitful lives without the interference of strict medieval-era Sharia law that imposes restrictions on every aspect of people's lives. Iranians have attempted time and again to convey their wishes to the hardline Islamist government that the version of Islam they have been forced to live under has made their lives a torment. The advent of the return of former Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini from exile in 1979 and the downfall of the Shah of Iran introduced the Iranian public to repression, subjugation and poverty of opportunities. 

The octopus arms of Revolutionary Iran that brought the dictatorship of a theocracy intolerant of any sign of its population rejecting the imposition of Islamist principles and practises under the watchful eyes of the ruling mullahs and their military arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has diminished quality of life entirely for the population they command. But the aspirations of the Islamic Republic goes well beyond imposing their version of Islam on its citizenry. In forming a sectarian alliance with other Shi'ite-led and majority governments, Tehran aspires to transform the entire Middle East including Sunni-majority nations into its satellites.

 

The sole exception being the State of Israel -- whose presence on land formerly 'consecrated' to Islam, irrespective of that land being ancestrally the heritage of Judeans and current Israeli citizens --  destined, as far as the Iranian government is concerned, to be destroyed. To that end, the al Quds division of the IRGC founded, sponsored, armed, organized, trained and guided Islamist terrorist groups whose primary function would be to attack and ultimately vanquish the Israeli Defense Forces, and that done, destroy the Jewish state and its Jewish inhabitants. Its proxy militia Hezbollah was conscripted into the Republic's vision for that singular purpose. In tandem with Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen they formed a formidable threat to Israel, fortified by Shi'ite militias in Iraq.

 

Iran said it is ready to negotiate with the United States over its nuclear program

The IRGC nuclear program that began with ever more advanced centrifuges enriching uranium in hidden locations to the point where the creation of nuclear bombs could be created to match the technological advances of the short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that could be fitted with nuclear heads, continues to concern Western intelligence agencies, and certainly it does Israel. Iran's claims that its interest in nuclear is restricted to domestic purposes is clearly a feint that fools no one. It has made no secret of its intentions against Israel and its antipathy to the United States.

 

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon", said American President Donald J. Trump. Signing an executive order on Tuesday for the reimposition of "maximum pressure" sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Mr. Trump said he felt "torn" on signing the order. "It's very tough on Iran", he said, without doubt referring to the additional economic pressure imposed on an  already flailing economy. "Hopefully we are not going to have to use it very much. I'm unhappy to do it"; not for any sympathy with the government, but empathy for the Iranian people living under economic hardships.

 

For months prior to this latest setback for Iran, the Republic has been signalling its readiness to re-engage in talks with the United States in the interests of negotiating the issue of its rapidly advancing nuclear program -- ostensibly in exchange for lifting crushing economic sanctions draining billions of dollars from the Iranian economy. With Khamenei's latest comments, the Iranian rial crashed to a record low of 872,000 rials to US$1 in aftermarket trading. 

"The Americans did not uphold their end of the deal. The very person who is in office today tore up the agreement. He said he would, and he did", complained Khamenei dolefully. Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday promised dialogue with the West. Several days later Khamenei contradicted that statement. While Iran's Foreign Minister stated that Iran would never engage in talks under the kind of pressure the newly imposed sanctions bear on the country.

 

Thousands of Iranians from across Europe rallied impressively in Paris on February 8, urging world leaders to put more pressure on Iran’s ruling clerics."Instead of appeasing the mullahs, [the world] should stand side by side with the Iranian people", Maryam Rajavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (the political wing of the People's Mujahedin of Iran), told the rally. "We say your demise has arrived. With or without negotiations, with or without nuclear weapons, uprising and overthrow await you", NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi said.

 

Supporters of the People’s Mujahedeen of Iran wave a flag of their organization (C) along with Iran’s pre-revolution flag during a demonstration in Paris, on February 8, 2025, on the occasion of the 46th anniversary of the uprising against the Shah. (Thibaud MORITZ / AFP)

The Situation in Sudan

"[Sudan is in the grips of a] catastrophic situation, [on the brink of a man-made famine.]"

"There are reports of mass graves, gang rapes, attacks in densely populated areas and many more horrors."

"We are failing the people of Sudan."

Edem Wosornu, UN relief advocate

"We haven't done anything -- just expressing concern, which doesn't solve any problems."

"There's not enough pushing from the international community, including Canada, to stop this war."

Imad Satti, director, Sudanese Canadian Communities Association

 

"We are looking to welcome Sudanese people fleeing war at the end of this year or the beginning of next year."

"It's very important to talk about what has become a forgotten war for a lot of us."

Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller

 

"Fighting broke out in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, on 15 April 2023 as an escalating power struggle between the two main factions of the military regime finally turned deadly."

"On one side are the Sudanese armed forces who remain broadly loyal to Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler. Against him are the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF formerly known as Janjaweed), a collection of militia who follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.'

"The RSF was founded by the former dictatorial ruler Omar al-Bashir as an Arab counterinsurgency militia. Bashir wanted to crush a rebellion in the region of Darfur that began more than 20 years ago due to the political and economic marginalization of the local population."

Background

Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, at a rally in Abraq village, outside of Khartoum, 22 June 2019. Photograph: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images

 

Desperate Sudanese trying to escape Sudan with its raging conflict re-ignited by a reconstituted Islamist group known for the horrors they inflicted on Black Darfurian farmers seek haven elsewhere than in a country that has distinguished itself for its lethal confrontation between traditional herders and pastoralists, forcing farmers off their land through uninhibited human rights violations of mass murder, rape, and situations where the then-government sent helicopter gunships to mow down people fleeing for their lives.

An estimated 8.5 million people have been forced out of their indigenous lands -- described by the United Nations as the largest internal displacement crisis in the world. Sudanese who had previously immigrated to, or been absorbed as refugees in Canada, escaping political and social oppression, call upon Canada to exert its immigration bureaucracy to enable threatened Sudanese to be reunited with their families in Canada.

The Liberal government of Justin Trudeau is skilled in expressing support for the war-torn unfortunates of the world by 'expressing concern' as it did last spring, in addressing the security situation in Sudan, airlifting its Canadian citizens to safety. However, the Canadian government has refrained from sanctioning the warlords, much less expressly naming and blaming countries that have been involved in fueling the war.

A family reunification program had been announced late in 2023, one designed to permit those fleeing Sudan to join their relatives in Canada with the proviso they have the means to provide financial support. According to the families involved, the program's demands for paperwork make the process impossible in an active war zone. Potential sponsors have been advised they must have $18,100 in cash, along with a minimum annual income of $51,128 to proceed with sponsorship of a family of four.

According to Mr. Satti, speaking through his organization as representing Sudanese groups across Canada, there are those with the required cash, set back by futile efforts aiding relatives in Sudan with the required paperwork, while others send money to help their relatives in a desperate situation, an effort that serves to deplete savings, while accomplishing little to actually enable their relatives to travel outside Sudan, much less look to the onerous requirements before immigration is countenanced.

Applications were being accepted from February 27, to the point where 680 applications had been received by a month later, representing the hopes of some 1,500 people who qualified for processing. To this point, however, no applications have yet been approved by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. The program was scheduled to accept as many as 3,250 applications, yet the minister of Immigration, Marc Miller has no expectation that anyone will arrive any time soon in Canada.

Former Ottawa ambassador to Sudan, Nicholas Coghlan, has spoken out for months urging Canada to follow the United States and Europe in sanctioning economic networks which warlords in Sudan are reliant upon. He also criticized Canada for lagging on appointing a senior diplomat for the region, to among other issues, gather intelligence to guide Ottawa on how best it could project humanitarian and diplomatic moves to aid the situation in Sudan. 

Sudanese refugees gather as Doctors Without Borders teams assist the war-wounded from West Darfur, Sudan, in Adre hospital. (Mohammad Ghannam/MSF/Handout via Reuters)

Crimping the Russian Revenue Faucet Fueling Ukraine Conflict

"We want to go more into the details. ... We want to make sure that the goal is to target Russia and not to make our life more difficult."

"We need to have a clear common understanding about what are the direct effects and what could be the collateral consequences."

Charles Michel, head, European Union council of governments

"At current prices, this entails massive profits for the Kremlin."

"Should the G7 agree on a price cap for Russian oil, that would be a very important step to limit Putin's windfall revenues."

Simone Tagliapietra, energy policy expert, Bruegel think tank, Brussels 

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson alongside the G7 leaders summit at Bavaria's Schloss Elmau, near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany June 28, 2022. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

 

The leaders of the world's largest developed economies are exploring any and all options to continue to bring economic, political and social pressure to bear on Russia in hopes of finally breaking the back of the violently aggressive bear that is pulverizing Ukraine, leaving its towns and cities in smouldering ruins, creating millions of displaced people, killing thousands of innocent civilians to satisfy Russia's rage over an implacably determined neighbour that sees its future with the West, struggling to leave the Kremlin's orbit.

Vladimir Putin's pretext of concern over the salvation of Ukrainians from the stranglehold of fascism that Ukraine's leaders purportedly exert on the country, evidenced by its drive toward EU and NATO membership is thin gruel as an explanation for mounting a violent invasion of its neighbour no matter how the issue is dressed in terms of ideology and the camouflage of Russian predation of territories that comprise part of Ukraine's vast land holdings.

The Group of Seven summit in Germany has discussed practical, workable methods to reduce Russia's income from its sale of energy products, profiting Russia's tremendous financial outlay to prosecute its conflict in Ukraine. The functionality of a price cap tied to services allied to trading in Russian oil and gas would see insurers barred from dealing with shipments above the cap. Service providers based largely in the EU and UK would see Russia finding it difficult to source large-scale workarounds.

Price limitations are foreseen to reduce the income the Kremlin now accesses from oil and gas and affect inflation in energy costs for consuming countries reliant on Russian energy. The plan would rely as well on countries in Asia agreeing to accept such a price cap. Another issue is enforcement as well as caution around potential side-effects. 90 percent of Russian oil reaches the EU by ship, an embarrassment to the EU which has relied heavily on Russian oil and gas.

There are warnings from economists that to proceed with such a plan there is a possibility of a recession being triggered in Europe. Recovering demand from the COVID pandemic and global markets hungry for energy are additional constraints that could hamper the plan. Although Russia is selling less oil to Western countries and diminishing its gas exports, it has seen no fall in revenues given the atmosphere of rising prices erasing the loss to state finances.

Russia, according to Western officials, has used its energy as a weapon to penalize the countries in Europe that have isolated it and applied crippling sanctions, by delivering less gas, for example, than contracted for. Moscow's success in replacing its European importers with willing replacement buyers in China and India has helped Russia out in its income dilemma. 

The new import arrangements in Asia sees India importing Russian crude and refining it, then selling it on the international market where Russian oil refined into gasoline or blended with other crude makes it difficult to determine its source. Countries hungry for energy have no inclination to delve into the issue of the finished product's origins, and that includes the United States, buying India's refined products which originated in Russian crude.

Yang Mei Hu oil products tanker owned by COSCO Shipping gets moored at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A Militarily Impeccable Perspective

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers. The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us."

"We need to view one million well-armed Ukrainian soldiers as a reality for the coming months."

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism; if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you."

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and -- however we don't want to admit it -- practically the whole world is against us -- and we need to get out of this situation."

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine -- it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last."

Mikhail Khodaryonok, retired colonel, military analyst 

"Time is definitely working against the Russians. They're running out of equipment. They're running out of particularly advanced missiles."

"And, of course, the Ukrainians are getting stronger almost every day."

Neil Melvin, RUSI think-tank, London

Viewers on Russian state television were given a surprising message directly from a highly respected Russian military analyst: Russia hasn't seen anything yet; the war it launched in Ukraine is heading in a direction the Kremlin never envisioned and while things appear bleak at the present time, they will become much worse yet, for Russia. When the retired colonel delivered his message to a captive audience accustomed to Russian propaganda on Monday evening on the 60 Minutes talk show on Rossiya-1, its host Olga Skabeyeva, a pro-Kremlin television journalist, interrupted the military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper.

Khodaryonok was also a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, someone who stuck his neck out even before Vladimir Putin's 'special military operation' went into motion, cautioning against the advisability of propelling Russia into a hugely ill-advised conflict, warning that this would not work out to Russia's national interests. In  his obvious defence is the fact that thousands of people have been killed in this war which has displaced millions more. The fact is an indelible fear of a serious confrontation between Russia and the United States.

 

Military pundit Mikhail Kodaryonok told Russian television that Moscow's forces faced an uphill battle against Ukrainian troops in a rare moment of candor on Kremlin-backed TV. Above, Ukrainian soldiers ride in tanks near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on May 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/Getty Images

The swiftness with which consequences occurred to the present was the unity of the U.S.'s European allies and other states in condemning Russia's invasion and agreeing jointly on punitive sanctions, straining Russia's economy and making it an international outcast. Followed by Sweden and Finland deciding in their best interests to apply for membership in the U.S.led NATO military alliance. Fear that what has occurred to Ukraine may also threaten them in future led to Vladimir Putin's most feared scenario.

 

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake -- it just looks rather funny", said Khodaryonok. While insisting that everything is "under control", Russian officials admit to the obvious; that their military operation is being prolonged, against all expectations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Tuesday stated that the invasion is "quite effective. The success of our military men is plain to see". Plainly emptily risible rhetoric. 

The most recent 'victory' celebrating Russian military strategic acumen -- the full control of Mariupol city -- or rather its ruins. If this is a victory it seems a fairly abject one, even if it leads to Russia now controlling the Black and Azov seas. For how long, after all...? Even having finally done so by battering the city beyond recognition and losing in the process a substantial number of their own servicemen, not to mention war munitions, its plan to conquer the entire eastern Donbas does not now look too secure.

Putin now faces a choice, whether to send in additional troops and military hardware replenishing his weakened forces in the face of modern Western weaponry giving greater heft to Ukraine's combat power. Other military analysts feel that the Russian invasion force faces unsustainable troop and equipmnt losses while hopes for success in their mission are narrowing. Western heavy guns, including M777 howitzers with longer range than Russia's equivalents look to give Ukraine an edge.

 

A destroyed Russian tank in Malaya Rohan, a village outside Kharkiv that was occupied by the Russians, on Tuesday.    Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

"I think it's either going to be defeat with the current force position, or mobilize. I don't think there is any middle ground."

"The Ukrainians are starting to outrange the Russians. That means they are able to operate without the threat of counter-battery fire from the Russians."

"Right now, from what I can tell, Putin is just kicking the can down the road and letting the situation within the Russian military actually get worse."

"For now, this is looking like the Russians' last offensive."

Konrad Muzyka, director, Rochon consultancy, Poland-based

The Cost of Energy Dependency

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a government meeting via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on Wednesday. Putin said Russia will only accept payments in rubles for gas deliveries to "unfriendly countries," which include all EU members and the U.S.   Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

"I have decided to implement ... a series of measures to switch payments — we'll start with that — for our natural gas supplies to so-called unfriendly countries into Russian rubles." 

"Russia will continue, of course, to supply natural gas in accordance with volumes and prices ... fixed in previously concluded contracts."

"The changes will only affect the currency of payment, which will be changed to Russian rubles."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

"At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously freefalling currency in order to pay."

Vinicius Romano, senior analyst, consultancy Rystad Energy

"It is unclear how easy it would be for European clients to switch their payments to rubles given the scale of these purchases."

"However, there are no sanctions in place that would prohibit payments of Russian gas in rubles."

Leon Izbicki, associate, consultancy Energy Aspects

AFP/Getty Images

Punishment and its sister spite have aided Russia in drawing up a list of 'unfriendly' countries who just happen to correspond to any imposing sanctions on Russia for its sudden invasion of Ukraine. Agreements with companies and individuals from the marked countries must be approved by a government commission. Some of the listed countries like the United States and Norway make no purchases of Russian gas and some others purchase so little they have no need of it whatever.

 

The list Russia has compiled includes but is not exclusive to the United States, European Union member states, Britain, Japan, Canada, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland and -- suppress that laugh -- Ukraine. Questions arise over whether this decision of Russia to impose this kind of 'penalty' would breach contract regulations agreed in euros.

"This would constitute a breach to payment rules included in the current contracts", a senior Polish government source complained, adding there is no intention on Poland's part to sign new contracts with Gazprom following the current long-term agreement's expiration in 2022. "I can't imagine we will agree to change the terms of that", he stressed.

Punishing Russia with sanctions and more sanctions for its misdeeds and now the incalculable horrors of a full-on conflict with Ukraine has given Vladimir Putin inspiration on pay-back. It's the steep price that comes with dependency. Without Russia's natural resources bonanza paying the freight for his technologically-updated war machinery inspiring him to the belief it'll be a quick in-and-out to achieve  his aspirations to help himself to Ukraine's territories, his level of confidence would be somewhat less.

 

In the full confidence of European dependence on Russia's gas and oil, Mr. Putin feels he's still holding aces.  His rubles demand from 'unfriendly' countries sent prices for European gas into the stratosphere on concerns the region's energy crunch would be exacerbated. Heating homes and powering up industries is of vital concern to any economy and so it is with Europe who in their fury over Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacted their own punishment on Russia.

 

To the EU's consideration of whether to sanction the Russian energy anchor, Putin took the initiative to snap back: Buy our currency or forget about acquiring our gas. Europe's need of Russian gas accounts for 40 percent of its total usage. Fluctuating between 200 million to 800 million euros daily so far in 2022. The demanded currency change has the potential to disrupt that trade, sending wholesale gas prices 30 percent steeper after the announcement.

 

Since February 24 when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian currency has fallen about 20 percent. Major banks are wary of trading in Russian assets and some buyers of Russian gas in the European Union were unable to clarify how they would go about paying for gas under the new demand. 58 percent of Gazprom's sales of natural gas to Europe and other countries from January 27 were paid in euros, with U.S. dollars accounting for 39 percent of gross sales and sterling 3 percent. 

The European Commission plans to end reliance on Russian supplies of gas "well before 2030" and has started out with plans to cut its dependency by two-thirds this year. EU states, given their dependency on Russia's energy sector, however, have not agreed to sanction it. Germany's Economy Minister plans to discuss with his European partners a potential response to Moscow's gas payments announcement. Even while Germany's Habeck stated that the demand represented a breach of delivery contracts.

 

A Russian Gazprom vessel — a floating storage and regasification unit — is seen anchored offshore in the Baltic Sea near Kaliningrad, Russia, in early February. (Vitaly Nevar/Reuters)

"It's difficult, given the current economic situation, for Russian authorities to abandon sales of oil and gas to the Western countries."

"You can say, 'We do not trust euros or dollars,' but economically it's the same operation. Money is money."

Marcel Salikhov, president, Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow