Monday, January 27, 2014

Vulnerable, Courageous Jordan

"We view the Kingdom of Jordan as one of the most important partners on all levels in terms of commerce, in terms of development, in terms of security in this part of the world.
"Jordan has responded to the plight of Syrian civilians with unwavering compassion and generosity by accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees. Doing the right thing is often difficult. Canada is proud to be able to help Jordan address the development and security challenges it is facing as a result of the Syrian conflict."
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, visiting Jordan

"There are major challenges ahead of us in this region. We continue to look to Canada's support working with us together to try and solve these problems. I know that, as brothers, we will be able to move forward on these challenges."                                Jordanian King Abdullah II

"Jordan has resisted, rightly, being considered a 'buffer state', because what that implies is that it almost has a policy of absorbing shocks. But the fact of the matter is the Jordanian space, between Israel and Iraq for example, during the 1990-91 war, and then the later one, was vitally important.
"Clearly there still is a theological interest and Jordan has tried to elaborate some Islamic norms in support of the peace process, but Amman is not Mecca. It's not really a fount of philosophy or principle. But the king does nonetheless try to rise above the immediate situation that he's in, and his country is in, and it uses all sorts of symbolic ways in which to do that."
Professor Alan Henrikson, director of diplomatic studies, Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper (L) shakes hands with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the Royal Palace in Amman on January 23 , 2014 prior to their meeting (AFP, Khalil Mazraawi)

Jordan, points out Professor Henrikson, is not officially neutral, but it is "right in the middle of things". The hundreds of Syrian refugees crossing the border from Syria daily under cover of night end up in the huge Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan, representing in size of population, though it is temporary, the fourth largest city in the country. It has been drawn into the conflict in Syria, whether it wants to be in that position or not.

Simply because of its geographic proximity and its very presence as a haven. With the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 Jordan became a haven for Palestinian refugees. A majority of Jordanians are Palestinians. Jordan is the sole country of the Middle East that absorbed Palestinians and gave them citizenship. Partially explained by the fact that Jordan itself occupied the West Bank when the British withdrew their protectorate status.

Jordan still has a presence in contested east Jerusalem through an agreement with the State of Israel, giving it authority over the religious Islamic holy sites. This also gives Jordan some measure of authority in the ongoing peace talks, where King Abdullah II welcomed both Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for separate talks, quite apart from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, and visiting Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Mr. Harper visited Amman and was received by King Abdullah on a compassionate humanitarian mission, to deliver an additional $150-million for the support of Syrian refugees, a responsibility that has challenged the finances of the anything but wealthy Hashemite Kingdom. King Abdullah is following in the political-diplomatic footsteps of his father who signed a peace agreement with Israel, one of only two Middle East states to do so, the other being Egypt.

King Hussein of Jordan, the current ruler's father, mounted a ferocious conflict with Palestinian Fatah, the 'armed wing' of the PLO in 1970, popularly named Black September, to rid his state of the compromising presence of Palestinian terrorists who continually mounted guerrilla attacks against Israel. The faction comprised a state-within-a-state, much as they later did in Lebanon, which they fled to after they were thrown out of Jordan. From Lebanon Fatah continued their assaults against Israel, leading to Israel's defensive occupation of Lebanon a decade later.

Yasser Arafat and the PLO were expelled from Jordan in early1971. There were one too many assassination attempts by the PLO against King Hussein. Fatah and Arafat took their weapons with them and began their destabilizing exercise anew in Lebanon.They were eventually expelled from Lebanon as well, but not before the country was devastated by factional, ethnic, tribal and sectarian violence, rising out of the destabilizing presence of the Palestinians in a once-peaceful country.

Where most countries of the Middle East experienced some level of unrest in the wake of the Arab Spring, Jordan has come out of that period relatively unscathed. Its own Muslim Brotherhood faction continues to present as a potential threat, but the King has managed to sail on an even keel, despite antipathies. His marriage to a Palestinian has without doubt helped in some measure to mollify the majority Palestinians ruled by a Hashemite Arab royal.

Senior military figures of the West; General Tom Lawson, Canada's chief of defence staff and General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, met recently in Amman in a high-level, hushed meeting. "Even though no agreements were signed, at least that's what was stated, there clearly was discussion of the overall situation. It was meant, I think, partly to have a  deterrent effect, to keep Assad in Syria from launching any attack across the border", explained Professor Henrikson.

The West is on alert is the message, from New York and London and from Amman, an especial message of vital importance to Syria, to Israel and to the Palestinians. And Jordan needs all those assurances as well, that it can manage to cache in its vulnerable position, caught between a deadly conflict creating the world's currently worst humanitarian situation, and the prospect of another conflict erupting through a Third Intifada on the West Bank.


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