generalspeaking

Consternation in Russia

"Yanukovych is finished. The fact that he signed this political deal is interesting, but it's just a way out for him, a way for him to save some face and possibly save his life."
"Mr. Yanukovych is simply the window dressing at this particular time. The regime that he constructed over the last few years is done for. He is on his way."
"With their collapse and the collapse of the Yanukovych regime, Ukraine now finally can make some kind of progress. This means that Ukraine is finally on the verge of leaving the Soviet Union."
"For the first time in a long time, Ukraine actually has some hope."
Alexander Motyl, professor of political science, Rutgers University, Newark, New Jersey

"Unlike its post-communist neighbours to the West, Ukraine did not pursue deep institutional reforms and its economy was seized by a narrow group of oligarchs, with close connections to political power and to the Kremlin."
"The government has even paid thugs to infiltrate the opposition camps and incite clashes."
Dalibor Rohac, Juan Carlos Hidalgo, policy analysts, Cato Institute think-thank

"Ukraine, this fragile and vital bridge [from Europe to Russia], is in danger of collapsing. To threaten sanctions, to condone violent extremists in the street and to ignore Ukraine's financial troubles -- as some European leaders seem to be doing -- would be to hasten the destruction of the bridge. Instead, we should be supporting and repairing it."
Romano Prodi, former Italian prime minister, President of the European Commission

 "Yanukovych comes from a political culture where opposition -- whether of a business or political nature -- is dealt with by intimidation or worse and where motives other than personal material interests remain incomprehensible."
Dominique Arel, University of Ottawa Chair in Ukrainian studies

The West has responded with economic sanctions and visa/travel bans. Infuriating Vladimir Putin no end, by their interference. This is the United States, this is Western Europe influencing Eastern Europe; no, make that infuriatingly making trouble for Russia on its very doorstep. Has Russia made an effort to coerce Canada, which has the third largest aggregation of Ukrainians as Canadian citizens after Ukraine and Russia herself, to make common cause with it against the EU and U.S.?

This is vital to Russian interests, to continue to have influence over its neighbour with whom it does so much business, to whom it looks for agreement in its Sevastopol Black Sea port for Russian ships. Ukraine, unlike Poland, did not wrench itself out of the Russian orbit with the breakup of the Soviet Union. Back then the two economies were identical; Poland's economy has pulled ahead significantly, its comfort level risen in lock-step with its integration with the European Union.

Ukraine's economy is in a parlous state. The choice, economic union with the EU and a nation-saving loan of $15-billion under favourable conditions, or the offer of a loan of like amount from Russia, plus savings on gas pricing, under somewhat coercive conditions. Brothers forever; the little brother acquiescing to the big brother's blandishments, and then all hell breaking loose in the north of the country.

Utter rejection of firming up ties with Russia, the agricultural heartland of the country remembering full well Soviet power and the anguish of living captive to it, the Holdomor and no end of grievances before and after. So, the opposition, so, the rebellion, and so the orders from the interior ministry to deploy sharpshooters, and to shoot to kill. Vladimir Putin's advice: stand fast, be firm, give no quarter.

And while he presented himself as the all-conquering hero; think Syria, think Iran, think Ukraine and before that Georgia, then Chechnya, and now the Winter Olympics in Sochi, where his gracious presence and benevolent smile made him a rock star -- the collapse of his assurance that Ukraine would remain in the Russian orbit has soured his Sochi triumph. The loss of an important ally, of the hegemony and opportunity to resurrect the past, stunning news.

Not that Mr. Yanukovych didn't do his utmost to settle the protests. The demonstrators were given the treatment deserving of terrorists, fifth columnists, secessionists in the pay of foreign elements. "Putin must be full of rage. He's urging Yanukovych to reestablish control and just doesn't understand what is going on, why there isn't any control", observed Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin advisor now heading the Effective Policy Foundation in Moscow.

The Yanukovych regime on the run, the president impeached, Yulia Tymoshenko released from prison, the mayor of Kyiv resigning, parliamentarians deserting the president, voting to return to the 2004 constitution, everything upended and a complete disaster. A deeply divided and volatile Ukraine. The east and south committed to Russia, the west completely rejecting any further contact with Russia. A split. A rout. A country in turmoil, in conflict, in dissolution.

Labels: Conflict, European Union, Russia, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Monday, February 24, 2014