generalspeaking

Putin The Unstoppable

"We will have more planes in the air, more ships on the water and more readiness on the land."
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Photo by: Manu Brabo Soldiers of the Ukrainian Army sit atop combat vehicles as they are blocked by people on their way to the town of Kramatorsk on Wednesday, April 16, 2014. Pro-Russian insurgents commandeered six Ukrainian armored vehicles along with their crews and hoisted Russian flags over them Wednesday, dampening the central government's hopes of re-establishing control over restive eastern Ukraine. (Associated Press)

Crimea is a done deal. Vladimir Putin appears determined to move on from there. Which is why 30,000 Russian troops along with fighter jets, helicopters, tanks and other war machines are on standby along the border between east Ukraine and Russia. Mr. Putin's idea of war games. They were stationed there, Russian troops, he blandly assured any who would believe him, routinely, because of previously scheduled practise manoeuvres for the military.

Just incidentally, "concerned citizens" of east Ukraine, balaclava-clad in military fatigues and armed to the teeth, driving tanks not necessarily their own, happen to be running riot through the eastern provinces, and declaring autonomy to the cheers of hundreds -- not thousands, in a population area to which hundreds is fairly meaningless but where the loud voices of dissent and threats usually intimidate the weak -- inciting them to further exciting exploits to embarrass Kyiv.

The sanctions and letters of disinvitation to specific Russians has been recognized as an insult to Moscow, but what of it? Western Europe has very robust trade ties with Russia, and those nations' corporations who visualize their bottom line bottoming out are very persuasive as lobbyists twisting the financial arms of their various parliamentarians, wincing with discomfort themselves at the penalty their defiance of Russian hegemonic plans will elicit.

Of course in Britain, a response with teeth could have ensued immediately Crimea was expropriated, in a bravura demonstration of what a determined democracy could aspire to, leading by example. Say, for example, expropriating the mansions of the oligarchs who so adore living in London; seize bank accounts, claim the luxury yachts, and then sit back and watch Vladimir Putin's friends and colleagues lambaste him for the inconveniences his adventures have caused them.

The new climate in global diplomacy brought to the fore, courtesy of Nobel-Peace-Prize-winning Barack Obama encourages discussions and negotiations, and putting the force of arms on the back burner, way, way back. And that's rather a good thing prospectively for an always too-violent world. Except that refraining from carrying through on threats of retaliation against those who impose their own violent will on the vulnerable, only encourages them to carry on, doesn't it?

The chemical weapons deal with Syria had everyone congratulating themselves that they hadn't embarked on a mission with boots on the ground to stop a tyrant from assaulting his population. Good thing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad agreed to surrender all those chemical weapons. Of course, it is unfortunate that Iran just keeps providing him with more that no one need know anything of.

And just as well that plans to aggressively intervene to stop Iran from acquiring those feared nuclear warheads were put aside, because why should any world body interfere in an autonomous nation's aspirations?

Russia is everywhere. Putting in a good word for Syria, for Iran, and strutting on the world stage as the exemplar of international diplomacy. While Washington slips from "disclose and dismantle" with Iran, deferring instead to diplomatic action, there is no longer any need to insist on Iran dismantling its military-nuclear infrastructure, because in fact, Iran will not of its own accord, let alone anyone else's accord. And it no longer fears American physical intervention, so mark up another win on that score.

The IMF has reported the effects of the de-escalating sanctions allowing Iran to experience a tentative economic recovery. A just-in-time reprieve from potential financial collapse. Which would not, of course, have caused Iran to halt its resolute march to nuclear entitlement. So Iran is feeling pretty good about the deal it negotiated with the G5+1, and last week a chemical bomb was dropped on the rebel-held Syrian village of Kfar Zeita, and Russia's ambassador to Canada assured that Russia had no designs whatever on Ukraine.

Merely "rumours". Days only, before Russia's invasion after the transparent manipulations, Georgiy Mamedov said for the record on the record: "It's the last thing you should be worried about." As in, friends and neighbours, perish the very thought. In which case, what is NATO so concerned about? Ukraine is large and unwieldy, and its population is divided. There is the Ukrainian part of Ukraine and there is the ethnic-Russian part of Ukraine.

Ukraine will simply have to accustom itself to the realization that eastern Ukraine is not really Ukraine; it has become de facto Russian territory and Moscow is prepared to welcome it into the fold with open arms. Leaving Ukraine without its traditional industrial heartland, and that's a huge pity. But then, they've already lost their jewel of the the Black Sea ports come to think of it, along with most of their military marine assets.

Pity, that. But Vladimir Putin's on a roll!

Labels: Aggression, NATO, Russia, Threats, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, April 19, 2014